Turfway Park pick for Jan. 14

Profile Picture: James Scully

January 13th, 2021

Turfway Park begins its three-day week with another competitive eight-race program on Thursday.          

Field sizes have been terrific this winter in Florence, Kentucky, and the Polytrack has been formful, with favorites scoring at a 37.5% clip since Turfway opened in early December. That percentage is higher than Aqueduct (32%), Gulfstream Park (31%), and Santa Anita (31%).

However, winning bettors at Turfway Park are receiving more bang for their buck. The average winning odds at Turfway are 7.57-1. Aqueduct (5.82-1), Gulfstream (5.6-1), and Santa Anita (6.11) have produced a lower return.

On Thursday, my best bet comes in the finale, #1 Can’tbetemall. The 4-year-old gelding has turned things around in his last four outings, and he’s taking a precipitous class drop in this spot.

Can’tbetemall is listed as the 3-1 second choice on the morning line. He’s faster than the early 7-5 favorite, and I’ll bet him straight at anything close to the morning line odds.

My other betting strategy involves the late Pick 3 (races 6-8). Here is how I will play a pair of 50-cent tickets:

  • 1,4 with All with 1 ($9)
  • All with 6,8 with 1 ($7)

Race 6 – 8:46 p.m. ET

This optional claiming event is an anomaly at Turfway – only seven horses were entered. It’s the only race on the card with less than nine entrants, and #1 Luna Fortis will take some beating following a sharp score over the track on Dec. 12. Multiple stakes-placed #4 Quick Witted, a close second in a salty Keeneland turf allowance two back, is another must-use.

Race 7 – 9:16 p.m. ET

#6 Glennwood, runner-up in the Forego S. at Turfway 12 months ago, did not have a clean trip when sixth last time. The gelding finds a more favorable spot and is eligible to rebound with a strong showing. #8 Haunt cuts back in trip and merits serious respect on the front end with Gerardo Corrales.

Race 8 – 9:46 p.m. ET

Can’tbetemall posted a sharp maiden claiming victory when switching to turf four starts back. He faced much tougher in his next three outings, and offered a respectable run every time, including a third versus allowance foes two starts back. In the last outing, Can’tbetemall finished sixth against a pretty decent field – the runner-up came back to win a $100,000 stakes race in his next outing.

This is a $7,500 claiming race for non-winners of two races lifetime. Can’tbetemall has been competitive against significantly better foes, and I like his chances with Declan Cannon.