Twinspires Australian Racing Preview for May 15
by Mitchell Lamb
Four venues for TwinSpires players keen to have a bet on Friday night in Australia and hopefully we’ve found a few winners below…
ROSEHILL RACE 3 NO.8 NEWSREADER (BRENTON AVDULLA)
Current Odds: 4-1
I tipped this filly at big odds on her debut two weeks ago after she impressed me at the trials and she produced a fantastic effort there, doing her best work late to be beaten less than a length into third – it confirmed in my mind that this girl as substantial upside and not only is a win not far away, but I think she’s going to be stakes class at least.
The extra half-furlong here helps, as does the better draw, with the option to position her a little closer in the run, and she’s probably better off at a larger circuit like Rosehill.
Bit surprised she’s not the favorite, as I thought she had more scope than the filly that beat her on debut and looks set to start the top elect in the market here in Macroura, so hopefully the price holds up and Newsreader gets the chance to show she’s a filly going places.
ROSEHILL RACE 4 NO.4 MASKED CRUSADER (TOMMY BERRY)
Current Odds: 4-5
He won’t be flash odds, but I fail to see how they beat Masked Crusader in the Inglis Guineas pending two things occur – firstly, he continues his natural improvement, and secondly, he backs up from his win a week ago.
That win by the way, was one of the easiest ones I’ve seen on a Sydney racetrack in recent memory – he beat nothing really, even if they were older horses, but the manner in which he did it was another piece of evidence that he may be a top shelf galloper in the making.
He now comes back to his own age here, but there’s obviously a few quality 3-year-olds against him, so really this should be a tougher challenge than last week, plus he’s got to handle the step up for the first time to the 7-furlongs. But he moves like a Rolls Royce this gelding, and even though he’s got the speed to be wherever he wants in the race, he’s also got the ability to come back underneath the jockey and settle, and that will do him the world of good as they test him over further – my feeling is that a mile won’t be beyond him and in fact may end up being his best trip.
Really looking forward to seeing what he can do here, in what is a good test for him, but one I think he’ll come through with flying colors.
ROSEHILL RACE 6 NO.9 ELEVEN ELEVEN (TOMMY BERRY)
Current Odds: 7-2
Smart 3-year-old who steps up to tackle the older sprinters here, avoiding having to clash with the likes of Masked Crusader in the Guineas, but, in all honesty, I think it’s a very winnable race for him, because most of them lining up against him here are either not suited at the trip, not going all that well, or will be giving Eleven Eleven a bit of weight.
Thought he was very good first up in the Arrowfield (G2), before he was caught wide early last start in the Hawkesbury Guineas, and didn’t find the line late.
He now peaks here third up, he looks set to get a very soft run behind what shouldn’t be a hectic early speed, and I think that slight step back to the 6 ½ furlongs here is more his go, rather than a truly run 7-furlong race – for me, all signs point to him breaking through for a deserved win against this lot.
GOLD COAST RACE 8 NO.5 GARIBALDI (JIM BRYNE)
Current Odds: 16-1
He’s been a bit costly for those who’ve stuck with Garibaldi since his debut win – he hasn’t won since in 9 starts…but I actually think he’s an underrated 3-year-old and he’s gone up a very appealing quote here in a race I think he looks very well suited in.
Love both his runs this time in, working home nicely in both starts behind odds on favorites who’ve enjoyed an easy time of it dominating from the front. For me, he’s deadset dying to win a race, and 7 furlongs around the Gold Coast, from a lovely draw, is absolutely perfect for him, especially on a form surface.
There should be plenty of speed on here, and I can envisage Garibaldi getting a lovely run a few lengths off that, and being the one that can strike early in the straight and hopefully on hold on late from any swoopers who appear out of the pack.
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