Homeracing Presents's NFL game of the week

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

September 5th, 2014

For Week 1 in the NFL, there are a total of seven plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, including five picks that cover more than 60% of the time and three predicted outright upsets.

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9/1/2014 Highlight: With the NFL kicking off this week, it's worth noting that this technology is over 60% against-the-spread with NFL Locks of the Week (52-32 ATS), 55% ATS (551-442 ATS) picking all NFL games, and over 60% ATS and Over/Under (50-33 ATS and O/U) with highlighted NFL picks all-time with greater than 60% confidence. Last season, picking every NFL game, the Predictalator hit 57.4% ATS, then went 9-1-1 (90% ATS) in the postseason. And finally, the Predictalator is now 35-9 against-the-spread in NFL playoff games.

Sunday, September 7 at 4:25 PM ET:
Dallas Cowboys +5 vs San Francisco 49ers (Covers 54.2%), OVER 51 (Covers 61.3%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Normal

The Vitals:

Projected Score: San Francisco 31.0 - Dallas 27.8
SU Pick and Win%: San Francisco wins 57.7%
Week 1 SU Confidence Rank: #10
ATS Pick and Win%: Dallas Cowboys +5 covers 54.2%
Week 1 ATS Confidence Rank: #11
ATS Wager for $50 player: $19
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (51) 61.3%
Week 1 O/U Confidence Rank: #1
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $94

The Teams: SF DAL
Straight-Up Record 0-0 0-0
Against-the-Spread Record 0-0 0-0
Over/Under Record 0-0 0-0
Avg. Points For vs. Against 0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) 0 0
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #6 #11
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #5 #3
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #10 #32
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #22 #31
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 0.0%/0.0% #0.0%/0.0%
Turnover Margin 0 0

Injured Players: NaVorro Bowman, LB, San Francisco 49ers, Glenn Dorsey, DE, San Francisco 49ers, Marcus Lattimore, RB, San Francisco 49ers, Aldon Smith, LB, San Francisco 49ers, Jakar Hamilton, CB, Dallas Cowboys, Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys, Orlando Scandrick, CB, Dallas Cowboys, George Selvie, DE, Dallas Cowboys, Anthony Spencer, DE, Dallas Cowboys

Weather Forecast: N/A

Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 57% San Francisco, 43% Dallas; O/U Bets - 88% Over, 12% Under

The Breakdown: For the season as a whole, expect us to take as many opportunties to fade the Dallas Cowboys as possible. They have all the makings of a team that the public mis-judges in that they have a public presence and large fan base as well as an elite set of skill position players that would make for a much better fantasy football team than team on the field, especially given the terrible defense. However, San Francisco is also a team for which the public perception appears to be off. 2014 could easily see San Francisco take a step back before improving back into contention for future seasons. The 49ers will be playing this game without impact defensive players Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman and with a secondary that is still largely unproven. Meanwhile, the roster (aside from quarterback) is one of the oldest in the league and the offensive line has yet to practice together all preseson.

This is a good time to get to fact the 49ers. Of course, the 49ers could be saying that about a Cowboys roster, which only features one defensive player who grades as average or above. Ultimately, though elite teams should be favored by at least a field goal in a situation like this, San Francisco has too many questions leading into the year to trust the 49ers to win on the road by more than five points over any team. History supports this claim as well. Since spreads were first tracked in 1978, according to the Trend Machine (an incredibly valuable tool we highly recommend), road favorites of at least five points are just 45% winners (988 games) ATS. This trend is simiilarly strong in the last five years (47% ATS, 159 games) and all-time in the first month of the season (42% ATS, 185 games).

With two offenses that currently rate better in every capacity than the defenses they are facing and the Cowboys only real chance of winning any game this season coming in shootout fashion, look for the strongest value in this game to come from the OVER (currently 51 despite 59 projected points).

Boxscore: San Francisco 49ers, 31 @ Dallas Cowboys, 28