Homeracing

Two singles for Gulfstream's $140,080 Pick 5 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

September 12th, 2021

Saturday was a day for upsets at Gulfstream Park. Four double-digit longshots visited the winner’s circle, including 43-1 and 34-1 shots who contributed to a massive $313,299.84 payoff in the 20-cent Rainbow Pick 6.

The Pick 6 may have been claimed, but the 50-cent Pick 5 went unsolved, leaving an enticing $140,080 carryover on tap for Sunday’s 11-race card. The prize pool is up for grabs in the Late Pick 5, which spans Races 7-11 (first post time 4:12 p.m. ET).

If you’re planning to play along, we’ve identified a pair of possible singles to build tickets around:

Best single: Race 11: #8 Defendant (2-1)

A dozen runners, including two also-eligibles, have been entered in this $12,500 claimer for fillies and mares dashing five furlongs on turf. But that doesn’t mean Defendant isn’t a viable single.

Trained by David Fawkes, Defendant ran gamely in her turf debut over this course, distance, and class level on Aug. 27. After carving out fractions of :21.93 and :45.02 (quick for this caliber of competition), the daughter of Gone Astray weakened only slightly in the final furlong to finish third by 1 1/2 lengths.

This effort produced a respectable 70 Brisnet Speed rating, among the highest figures in Sunday’s field. And since Fawkes’ overall 17% win rate jumps to 25% with second-time turf starters, there’s no reason to think Defendant won’t run just as well or better in her second grass foray. Throw in the fact pacesetters win 43% of five-furlong turf sprints at Gulfstream, and I think we have a recipe for victory.

Second-best single: Race 10: #6 Hero Tiger (7-5)

A capable performer on both dirt and turf, Hero Tiger ran second in a $16,000 claiming sprint on July 31 at Gulfstream and looks tough to beat while sticking to the same class level for Sunday’s six-furlong dash.

Hero Tiger has posted four straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 88-90 range, and his last four figures on dirt specifically have ranged from 88 to 94. Hero Tiger is the field’s fastest horse in terms of recent Brisnet Speed ratings and finished 2 1/2 lengths ahead of key rival #3 Whyruawesome (8-5) on July 31. If everyone runs their typical race on Sunday, Hero Tiger should come out on top at a short price.

Good luck!

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