Two singles for the $78,714 Pick 5 carryover at Turfway Park

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

January 8th, 2021

It’s safe to say bettors were stumped by Thursday’s Pick 5 sequence at Turfway Park. Four of the five triumphant horses visited the winner’s circle at double-digit odds, and when the dust settled, not a single bettor had managed to pick more than three winners—let alone five!

As a result, a hefty $78,714 Pick 5 carryover is up for grabs on Friday at Turfway. With 58 entries in the mix, the sequence (which spans Race 1 through Race 5) looks tough to decipher.

But after going over the fields, we’ve landed on a pair of potential singles to bookend the Pick 5. One is a favorite, and the other is a longshot, but both appear poised to bring their best on Friday evening:

Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (1 mile, 6:15 p.m. ET)

#7 Seductive (3-1) couldn’t quite keep up with $8,000 claiming foes on Dec. 19 at Turfway, but two starts back she fired off a big effort for a $5,000 tag, rallying powerfully to defeat nine rivals by 5 3/4 lengths.

This effort produced a solid 81 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest recent figure posted by any runner in the Friday opener. Dropping back down the class ladder will make Seductive dangerous at a short price, especially when you consider this 1-mile race is almost completely lacking in early pace. Seductive has enough tactical speed to secure a forward position, and from there, she’ll be tough to run down.

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (1 mile, 8:16 p.m. ET)

It’s not every day (or even every year?) that I recommend singling a 15-1 shot in a Pick 5. But none of runners in this 1-mile maiden race for 3-year-olds have reached the 82 Brisnet Speed rating plateau that stands as par for the class level and distance, which suggests the lightly raced #3 Wild Demir (15-1) could be surprisingly formidable at a big price.

Granted, Wild Demir didn’t show a lot in his debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, rallying past tired rivals to finish fifth in a $40,000 maiden claiming race. But Wild Demir “was unruly in the warmup” per the Equibase result chart, and he didn’t get off to the best start either. These two factors may have contributed to his somewhat sluggish performance.

Wild Demir will add blinkers and Lasix on Friday while stretching out over a mile, a distance more suitable for his stout pedigree. He’ll also retain the services of hot jockey Gerardo Corrales (a 26% winner at Turfway), setting the stage for a much sharper performance.

Good luck!