Homeracing

Unanimous A.I. & TwinSpires Team To Bet the Kentucky Derby Superfecta

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

May 5th, 2017

The collective knowledge of those who participated in the Unanimous A.I. Kentucky Derby Swarm predicted the same winner as me: Classic Empire.

 

But of course, betting on the Kentucky Derby can involve so much more than just picking the winner—especially if you’re looking to land one of those superfecta payouts that have paid in the tens of and even hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Last year’s Unanimous A.I. swarm correctly predicted the exact order of finish of the 2016 Kentucky Derby. It was worth $542.60 if you bet it for a dollar, or given a 541-to-1 chance by the public. Pretty long odds to beat, but (there’s always a but), the wagering public picked it, too, since the top four wagering choices finished in order (something that had never happened before).

My interest in the Swarm goes beyond picking a particular race. I’m curious whether it does better as a predictor of success on the track or a predictor of how the public predicts success on the track.

Last year’s swarm and results failed to answer that question because both the odds and the swarm ranked the horses the same way, and as mentioned before, they came in that way for the first time ever.

This year might be different. The Swarm predicted Classic Empire would win with a narrow selection over McCraken. Irish War Cry was the third pick followed by Always Dreaming, Hence, and Gunnevera.

As of this writing, though, the Swarm’s fourth choice—Always Dreaming—is the public’s choice to win the race. If this holds up, then we’ll get the Swarm versus bettors battle I’m clamoring for.

The swarm results are useful for betting because they give a percentage chance of a horse to finish in the top four. Just because you pick a horse or prefer a horse to others doesn’t mean you think that outcome has a 100% chance of happening. I like that the swarm reflects that.

We’ll put the Swarm’s probability to good use with a TwinSpires Players Pool that is betting $10,000 on the Kentucky Derby superfecta using only the swarm’s predictions.

Final wagers will be available by accessing the players’ pool link, but based on the results of the Swarm, 100% of the tickets will have one of the four choices in the top four. I.e., if the favorites all run out, then the Swarm won’t win, but there are still plenty of high-paying outcomes among the results the Swarm thinks are possible.

As one example, the Swarm gives Battle of Midway and Tapwrit a 5% chance (each) of finishing in the top 4. That’s a 1/400 chance that both do, but based on 10,000 combinations, $25 worth of tickets should cover that opinion.

On the opposite end, the Swarm said Classic Empire and McCraken have an 85% chance (each) of finishing in the top four. Thus, about 70% (or $7,000) of tickets should have both horses in the top four.

Again, wagers will be available tomorrow at https://www.twinspires.com/php/multiplePlayersPool/#/detail/579

Read the TwinSpires betting guide to learn Superfecta strategies.

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