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Homeracing

Upset Rumblings Are For Real In Frosh Breeders Crown Finals’ Big Cash-Contests

Profile Picture: Frank Cotolo

October 21st, 2015

In a few cases, the two-year-old Breeders Crown finals at Woodbine on Oct. 24 will offer fields that appear in little conflict with some dominating trotters and pacers. The odds on these “super youngsters” will be prohibitive at best. You won’t need any experienced handicapper to the point out the preponderant contestants; you need to address alternative possibilities. This is where the TwinSpires harness blog becomes the most valuable tool you can use when wagering.

Let’s make some noise.

We identify strong competitors that may upset or partner in strong exotic payoffs using the top public choices. Keep this in mind as the last of our Breeders Crown Countdown blog analyzes the “Crown”-finals for freshmen.  

The Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly have followed the important and wager-worthy races that have led to the cast of characters in the finals of the championship series, along with archived reports at the Hambletonian Society web site from mid-August through the finals. The same great partnership carried bettors through the parade of races leading to the Hambletonian and Hambletonian Oaks from May through mid-August. All of it has been exclusive to TwinSpires’ harness department. Much thanks for the cooperation and support of the Hambletonian Society’s President Tom Charters and Moira Fanning, Director of Publicity and the entire staff, for another successful year of promoting the best betting available in one of the best sports to bet.

Below, division by division (check your program for race order), are the two-year-old “Crown” final analyses and comments. The other Crown finals are covered in the main weekly blog.

Two-year-old filly pace final ($600,000)

They all chase Pure Country, the nine-wins-for-nine-starts, Jimmy Takter-trained filly, from the great pacer and sire Somebeachsomewhere. Last week, in the elim sans “Country,” we backed Skinny Dipper, who just made the final. Her elim performance (27-1) included a strong challenge that ate up 7 lengths, bringing her first over to race in second after swift fractions. Yankee Moonshine, from cover, closed and won the elim. Had the trips been reversed, “Skinny” could very well have won or picked up a better toteboard result.

Skinny is an outside contender here at a huge price and at the least, an important ingredient to a healthy exotic if Country makes it 10 for 10 wins on the season. A Skinny-winning scenario here would depend upon strenuous speed challenges for Country from her inside and from Call Me Queen Be, who may try to find a spot mid-field early from her strapping 10-hole launch.

Also-eligible Tipton Teeez could be an exotic factor if she draws in due to a scratch.  

Two-year-old colt trot ($600,000) final

Southwind Frank will go for his 11th-straight victory, seasonal honors and maybe a speed badge as he already owns 2016’s Hambletonian winter-book-favorite status. Like his filly counterpart Pure Country, he has ruled this division with 10 for 11 wins as its highest earner. So why should the Crown final present itself as anything but a “trot down the lane”?

The greater equation tells us “Frank” can only beat himself and though there are many ways to do that the majority of percentages are on his side to win and win big. However, there are other chances and circumstances that could make us money and it may be due to the public overlooking a Takter trotter.

The improvement of Lagerfeld deserves significant attention and with a bit of luck the public may not pay attention to that as much as they will embrace Frank and a few others (like local Deep Impact and Tony Soprano). Lagerfeld’s loss to Frank in the elim was due to an aggressive move, which handed Frank a slight edge. Toe to toe, Lagerfeld has more chances to defeat Frank, even by the slightest margins, than the public is bound to give him. At the very most, Frank’s biggest challenge of the season may be this race and we are going to count on Lagerfeld’s odds being well worth the upset object, as well as it may support good exactors and triactors.

Two-year-old filly trot ($600,000) final

With Broadway Donna and Celebrity Eventsy eliminated by galloping, the field of finalists matches up with more possibilities for our perpetual price hunt. The crowd will shift from “Donna” to Haughty, All The Time and Caprice Hill (despite her post). Haughty faced sudden-defeat at the hands of Donna but she tanked to his benefit. Haughty may not be the undefeated “type” as are those we have already discussed.

Womans Will is attractive here for many reasons; one we would hope would be price. She has shown competitive vigor with this group and has cashed some fine checks. Given the right circumstances she could beat anyone here and it may be smart for us to make this race the scene of “the right circumstances.” We expect a price far better than her chances and certainly endorse her in all exotics.

Two-year-old colt pace ($600,000) final

Travel Playlist is the only scratch in the finals as of blog-press time and the scratch allows Talk Show to participate in a field that offers many scenarios. As usual, we want to investigate the ones with the best possible payoffs.

Again, however, we are presented with an undefeated horse, one that is on his home turf, meaning loyal Canadians will support him to the hilt. Control The Moment will strive for the Crown jewels, so to speak, but we contend he will have to work hard for them. His ability to stuff the win pool should help Spider Man Hanover’s odds considerably. “Spider” has been dead-on dangerous and is bound to be a threat for “Moment” in this theater.

To give any exotic tickets a huge boost, consider Big Top Hanover as an addition. He may be totally overlooked here and wind up a number on the toteboard as the results flash some larghe numbers.
 
 

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