Vulnerable favorites in the Pick 6 carryovers at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

February 17th, 2021

Ready to chase some carryovers? Jackpot-style Pick 6 pools are among the highlights up for grabs on Wednesday.

At Gulfstream Park, the Rainbow 6 carryover sits at $83,722. Not far away at Tampa Bay Downs, the Ultimate 6 boasts a jackpot of $37,430.

Both sequences look challenging to handicap, particularly since there’s rain in the forecasts. Payoffs should be solid if we can beat a few short-priced runners, so let’s dig in and examine a few potentially vulnerable favorites worth opposing:

Gulfstream Park

Race 6 ($20,000 Claiming): #1 Dem a Wonder (5-2)

On her best day, Dem a Wonder is clearly the fastest runner in this six-furlong dash. The sophomore filly is the only runner in the field to have cracked the 80 Brisnet Speed rating plateau, and she’s actually posted figures in the 84-93 range on four occasions.

But Dem a Wonder failed to fire in a pair of recent allowance races for Florida-breds, finishing fourth and sixth with much lower Brisnet Speed ratings than usual. Facing open claiming company on Wednesday might be a tougher task than it appears at first glance, especially if Dem a Wonder’s form continues to regress.

Tampa Bay Downs

Race 4 ($10,000 Maiden Claiming): #2 Workinonbeinsingle (2-1)

Dropping down from the $16,000 level to the $10,000 level for high-percentage trainer Gerald Bennett stamps Workinonbeinsingle as a seemingly obvious contender. But the daughter of Bahamian Squall is adding blinkers (a winning move only 10% of the time for Bennett) after cracking the trifecta in just one of her first five starts.

Actually, Workinonbeinsingle isn’t the fastest filly in Wednesday’s field. #5 Billysbirthdaygirl (5-2) has run significantly faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale while finishing third or better in five straight starts, including one run against maiden special weight company. Taking all of these factors together, Workinonbeinsingle appears tough to trust at a short price in the Ultimate 6.

Race 8 ($16,000 Maiden Claiming): #4 Dancin At the Ritz (2-1)

Dancin At the Ritz ran just fine over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 31, rallying to finish third by 2 1/4 lengths. But the daughter of Graydar is far from a standout in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, and she’s not the only entrant to have run well for a $16,000 claiming tag. In fact, #6 D Flat White (6-1) finished 1 3/4 lengths clear of Dancin At the Ritz on Jan 31.

Can Dancin At the Ritz prevail on Wednesday? Certainly. But she can’t be viewed as unbeatable in this competitive heat.

Good luck!