Churchill Downs: How to bet the Pick 5 and Pick 6 carryovers

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

May 29th, 2021

With seven stakes races on the agenda, the Saturday card at Churchill Downs is a fantastic affair. Throw in a pair of lucrative carryovers, and the afternoon becomes a can’t-miss event.

For starters, the $150,655 Derby City Pick 6 jackpot is scheduled for a mandatory dispersal, and the final pool for the all-stakes, 20-cent wager is expected to reach half a million dollars. The action gets underway in Race 6 (post time 3:18 p.m. ET).

But there’s also a $73,634 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5 pool, which begins in Race 7 (post time 3:50 p.m. ET). Since both sequences cover Races 7-11, handicapping one wager pretty much provides everything you need to play the other.

Need help planning your wagers? Let’s take a race-by-race look at the action and put together a pair of tickets to play:

Race 6: Blame S. (1 1/8 miles)

A small but competitive field has assembled for the opening leg of the Derby City 6. #7 Silver Dust (3-1) won Keeneland's Ben Ali (G3) over this distance last month, but he had to dig deep to stem off graded stakes winner #3 Night Ops (5-2). Speedsters #2 Sprawl (3-1) and #5 American Dubai (6-1) are also capable of factoring on their best day.

Race 7: Shawnee S. (1 1/16 miles)

#7 Envoutante (4-5) boasts a 3-2-1-0 record at Churchill Downs, including a blowout six-length victory in the 2020 Falls City (G2). She enters the Shawnee off a gallant runner-up effort in the La Troienne (G1) over the same track and distance as the Shawnee, beaten just one length by 2020 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Shedaresthedevil. If Envoutante brings her A-game, she can win for fun as a short-priced single.

Race 8: Regret (G3, 1 1/8 miles on turf)

#8 Flown (9-2) and #4 Spanish Loveaffair (5-2) were compromised by a slow early/fast late race shape when finishing fifth and sixth in Keeneland’s Appalachian (G2). Either can win with a better setup on Saturday, but #5 Barista (5-1) also warrants inclusion after rallying to a sharp runner-up effort in the Edgewood (G2) at Churchill Downs.

Race 9: Matt Winn (G3, 1 1/16 miles)

#3 O Besos (2-1) is the favorite after rallying to finish fifth in the Kentucky Derby (G1), but as a one-dimensional deep closer, he’s hard to trust as a single. Oaklawn S. winner #5 Fulsome (5-2) and flashy Keeneland maiden winner #1 Ready to Pounce (15-1) are worth using as backups.

Race 10: Aristides S. (six furlongs)

#3 Bango (4-1) didn’t quite see out seven furlongs when weakening to finish sixth in the Churchill Downs (G1) last month, but he’d never previously missed the trifecta in half a dozen starts at Churchill, including four victories. But Bango will need his absolute best to beat #5 Empire of Gold (7-2), a recent Oaklawn Park allowance winner who ran fourth in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).

Race 11: Douglas Park S. (1 1/16 miles on turf)

#3 Parlor (5-1), beaten a nose in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) last summer, is a logical contender in his 2021 debut. But in case he’s rusty off the layoff, Churchill’s recent Opening Verse S. winner #8 Set Piece (2-1) and the speedsters #4 Ramsey Solution (6-1) and #9 Gray’s Fable (6-1) also have the credentials to factor in the competitive Saturday finale.

The Tickets

20-cent Pick 6: 2,3,5,7 with 7 with 4,5,8 with 1,3,5 with 3,5 with 3,4,8,9 ($57.60)
50-cent Pick 5: 7 with 4,5,8 with 1,3,5 with 3,5 with 3,4,8,9 ($36)

Good luck!