Wheels And Motion: How To Play the Grade 1 Double Sunday at Woodbine
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With expected scratches, it should be a 70-combination double with 7 in the E.P. Taylor and 10 in the International. I’ll definitely be watching the double board to how these scenarios are being bet:
1. The H. Graham Motion double. Motion has #3 Quidura in the E.P. Taylor and #s 8 Messi and 9 Erupt in the International. I think Motion’s International duo are a lot closer in win chance than their morning line odds indicate. I’d want $75 for a deuce on either to take the plunge, and I think we’ll get that with Messi but not with Erupt.
2. The Aidan O’Brien double: if AoB sweeps the Grade 1s today at Keeneland he’ll break Bobby Frankel’s record for most Grade/Group 1 wins in a season (Frankel had 25, and O’Brien is sitting at 24). He’d also probably do it at an underlaid price. I’d need this double to pay at least 45-to-1 to take the plunge, and there’s zero chance we’re getting that.
3. The Mike Maker double. Like Motion, Maker has one in the EP Taylor (#1 Kitten’s Roar) and two in the International (#1 Oscar Nominated and #3 Enterprising). Both have upset chances in their respective races, and I expect the 1-1 double (“a couple of breadsticks” as John McGary would say) to pay nice if it were to come in. I’m a buyer in the 75-to-1 range.
4. The take-what-they-give-you caveman play. Looking at my ABC grid, there’s not a lot that would shock me. It’s just a matter of finding the right price. Obviously, I’m not going to wheel the EP Taylor field with more than half the international field, but I will look at the doubles with Oscar Nominated, Johnny Boy, Messi, Flamboyant, and Postulation and cherry pick the 2-3 from that group to wheel with the EP Taylor based on the highest prices. It’s 7 units per horse in the International.