Who Is the Most Likely Kentucky Derby Starter? Carpe Diem

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TwinSpires Staff

March 26th, 2015


Through the twists & turns of the Road to the Kentucky Derby, many changes have occurred to the prospective Kentucky Derby field: Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red has defected due to injury, and also, dropping from the original top twenty are Metaboss (ranked 16th), Daredevil (ranked 15th), Far From Over (ranked 6th), as well as Lucky Player, Rock Shandy, and Bayerd (ranked 17th, 18th, and 19th, respectively), in terms of their chances of staying in the top 20.

New Editions are Prospect Park, who was last seen finishing second to the unbeaten Dortmund. He’s come a long way in a short amount of time, but will likely face the same rival in the Santa Anita Derby. We also have Classy Class, Ami’s Flatter, Keen Ice, and The Truth or Else. All of whom I remain leery of. None have proven that they are of the same class as the leaders of this top 20. When you have horses like Far From Over, Materiality, that already have impressive stakes wins to their credit, the chances are high that some lower on this list may lose their spot.

Now, on the positive side, the crème of the crop seems to be demonstrating its dominance consistently. El Kabier, who was ranked 11th on his chances to make the Derby, has moved up several spots, in my eyes. He continues to be the top ranked points earner, and does so after showing a new dimension in the Gotham. Also, returning in fantastic style were Carpe Diem and American Pharoah. Fans always question whether top juveniles will make the jump from their juvenile year to their sophomore season, and they did in dominant fashion.

We also had Dortmund, Firing Line and International Star show that their early season form was no fluke. Dortmund ran huge in the San Felipe, beating Prospect Park and Bolo. Firing Line traveled to New Mexico, and in getting a break from his rival Dortmund, he romped in the Sunland Derby by over 14 lengths. International Star, with questions to his consistency, demonstrated that he has become a new horse, by taking the Risen Star, earning himself back to back victories. That is a first in his career.

So, what can we expect in final round? I would say to expect the top horses to further distance themselves, while seeing quite a few changes in the spots 15-20. Buckle your seat belts; this weekend begins the Champion Series, where you will see just how interesting this trail really is.

KY Derby Top 20- Round 2/  Odds to Stay in Top 20
Carpe Diem                                                                        2/1 
Dortmund                                                                           3/1
American Pharoah                                                           3/1
El Kabier                                                                               5/1
International Star                                                             5/1
Firing Line                                                                           5/1
Upstart                                                                                 6/1
Itsaknockout                                                                      8/1
Far Right                                                                            10/1
War Story                                                                          12/1
Mr.Z                                                                                     15/1
Prospect Park                                                                  15/1
Bold Conquest                                                                18/1
Frosted                                                                              23/1
Classy Class                                                                      25/1
Madefromlucky                                                             30/1
Ami's Flatter                                                                    35/1
Conquest Typhoon                                                       35/1
Keen Ice                                                                            37/1
The Truth Or Else                                                           40/1