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Homeracing

Worth the Weight? Wise Dan Takes on Six at Saratoga

Profile Picture: Derek Simon

Derek Simon

August 9th, 2013

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Which brings us to this weekend’s Grade II Fourstardave Handicap, in which defending Horse of the Year Wise Dan will be conceding 11-14 pounds to his six (scheduled) rivals. 


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(Click on image to enlarge)
Will the spread in weights be enough to trip up the champ?

Personally, I don’t think so. However, I am intrigued — once again — by Lea, a horse that I think is immensely talented and one that got a questionable ride the last time he faced Wise Dan in the Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs.

It is noteworthy that top jock Joel Rosario takes over the riding duties from Brian Hernandez on the son of First Samurai. As was the case in the Firecracker, in which Lea pressed slow fractions while running wide around both turns (a double no-no), the key to upsetting “Dan” in the Fourstardave is the pace.

If Lea can control the tempo, I believe he is fast enough late to hold off Wise Dan down the lane… and set off the inevitable complaining about unfair weight assignments.

Note: Watch the place and/or show pools. If Wise Dan controls 75% or more of the money wagered, I'd suggest betting Lea in those pools.

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