Arsenal vs. Manchester City: Premier League betting odds, preview, and pick

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December 30th, 2021

Manchester City have an eight-point lead at the top of the Premier League table as we kick off 2022, and Pep Guardiola’s men are red-hot favorites to win another league crown. Arsenal will be hoping they can upset the odds at home, however, and continue their purple patch in December, which saw them jump to fourth in the race for the last Champions League spot.

The stakes couldn’t be higher as we get set for a thriller in North London.

Sat, January 1 2022, 12:30 PM





Manchester City


Same old story for in-form Arsenal?

Mike Arteta’s side are in a lovely bit of from, winning their last four games on the spin and scoring 14 goals (3.5 per game), while conceding just the once (0.25 goals per game). In the last eight league games, only Liverpool and Manchester City have picked up more points per game than Arsenal, who have not only climbed up to fourth, but put four points between themselves and West Ham in fifth.

It’s been a remarkable turnaround for the Gunners, who were rock bottom after losing their opening three games, and their good run has been built on beating lower-quality teams. Against bottom-five teams, they have a 6-0-0 record, and against bottom-10 teams, it’s still a solid 8-1-2.

The problem comes against the top teams. Against the top 10, Arsenal’s record reads 3-4-1, and this season they’ve already lost 5-0 away to Manchester City, 4-0 away to Liverpool, and 2-0 at home to Chelsea.

Unfortunately, that’s just the norm for Arsenal fans, who have watched their team struggle against the top sides consistently over the last decade. In their last 12 league games with Manchester City, the Gunners have a 0-10-2 record, with their last victory against them coming in December 2015.

There are reasons to be optimistic this time around. In the last 10 Arsenal games, young English duo Emile Smith Rowe and Bukayo Saka have a combined 11 goals, while keeper Aaron Ramsdale has an 81.8% save success percentage (third in the league) and kept clean sheets in 56.3% of his games (second in the league). All three players are under 23, so they won’t have the scar tissue of regular beatings from Manchester City.

Can they start turning the tide?

Dominant City move closer to the title

When Manchester City lost 2-0 at home to Crystal Palace, it was fitting that the game landed on Halloween because since then their form has been scary good! After that surprise defeat, Guardiola’s men have now won 10 games on the bounce, scoring 31 goals (3.1 a game) and keeping six clean sheets (60%).

It’s a run of form that has not only thrust Manchester City to the top of the table, but they have opened an eight-point gap to the rest of the chasing pack. In two months, they have dealt a defining, dominant blow to their title rivals and are now heavy favorites to retain their crown.

No team in the league has scored as many goals as City (51), conceded as few (12), or kept as many clean sheets (15). City won the league with 86 points last year, finishing 12 clear of the rest, and this year they’re on track for an even better return, averaging 2.5 points a game, which would put them on 95 in May.

Being on the road doesn’t matter to City, who have an 8-1-1 record away from home this season and have averaged two goals a game, while keeping five clean sheets. Their record against Arsenal has been almost flawless, and it took them just 12 minutes to go 2-0 up against the Gunners earlier this season, eventually thrashing them 5-0.

Arsenal and Manchester City betting trends

  • There have been Over 2.5 goals in five of Arsenal’s last six league games
  • Arsenal have failed to score just once in their last 12 league games
  • Manchester City have kept six clean sheets in the last 10 league games
  • Arsenal have failed to score in seven of the last eight league games against Manchester City
  • There have been Over 2.5 goals in seven of Manchester City’s last nine league games
  • 73% of the last 15 league meetings between Arsenal and Manchester City have had Over 2.5 goals

New year, same City

It’s hard to see anyone stopping Manchester City in this run of form, and despite Arsenal’s winning stretch, City have owned the Gunners in the last six years, and that won’t change this weekend.

Arsenal have struggled to land any sort of blow on City in recent meetings, and Guardiola’s side have been swiftly putting teams to the sword this season — leading at half-time in nine of their last 10 games.

It would be no surprise to see them take an early lead at the Emirates and put the game to bed before the teams go in at half-time. Raheem Sterling has opened the scoring in three of the last four meetings between these teams and can get City off to the perfect start again.  

Score prediction: Arsenal 0-3 Manchester City (+1000)

Arsenal vs. Manchester City: Manchester City to win to nil (+190)

Same Game Combo: Manchester City to win, Under 3.5 total goals, Raheem Sterling to score first (+1150)