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Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester United: Champions League betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

February 21st, 2022

Neither Man United nor Atletico Madrid are having the season fans hoped for last summer, with both sides struggling domestically, but the fans’ complaints can be put on the backburner with a good European run.

A place in the Champions League quarterfinals is at stake on Wednesday, as United travel to Madrid for the first leg of their Last 16 tie, where some familiar faces await them.

The Spanish side are favorites at home in what is set to be a fascinating clash.

Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester United Betting

Atletico MadridTieManchester United
+145
+215
+220

More Misery in Madrid?

Atletico were on top of the world last May when a 2-1 win over Valladolid gave Atletico Madrid their first La Liga title in seven years. Coach Diego Simeone had guided Atletico to a title, two points clear of their fierce rivals Real Madrid and seven points clear of Barcelona.

But now Atletico are amid their worst league season in the last decade. They have just 42 points after 25 games, which is their worst return at this stage of the season since 2011-12.

In Europe, they’re lucky to even be at this stage of the competition, having been bottom of the group going into the final game against Porto. A 3-1 win on the road coupled with AC Milan losing 2-1 at home to Liverpool was enough for Atletico to sneak through.

Domestically at home their form isn’t too bad, averaging 2.0 points per game with a record of 7-2-3, including a 2-0 win over Barcelona. They’ve kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home games in La Liga this season. Although, going forward they’ve struggled with just 1.75 goals per game at home, whereas last season they were averaging 2.16 goals per game.

In Europe, they picked up just one point from home from a possible nine as they drew 0-0 with Porto before losing 3-2 to Liverpool and 1-0 to AC Milan. In true Jekyll and Hyde style, they’ve looked the weaker side when playing at home in Europe, compared to domestically, where they’ve picked up some important points at the Vincente Calderon.

The goals at home are a clear concern, but Antoine Griezmann’s potential return is a boost. He was on the bench at the weekend, as Madrid beat Osasuna 3-0. Luis Suarez scored a beauty in that match as well, and although that was just his second goal in the league since the start of November, he will have some extra motivation being an ex-Liverpool player. His history with United is well-documented but his record isn’t great, with just two goals in nine games against the Red Devils.

Madrid’s record in their last eight games is 4-3-1, and that says it all about this team that is wildly inconsistent.

Ronaldo can hurt Atletico again

Are Manchester United quietly in alright form? OK, so fans on social media would be quick to disagree and the turmoil around the club has been well-documented in the media, but they’ve only lost once since November 21 in all competitions.

While that does include dropped league points to Newcastle and Burnley, as well as draws in the cups to Young Boys and Middlesbrough, the Red Devils have a record of 10-1-7 in all competitions in their last 18 games.

Suddenly that doesn’t look too bad.

Sunday’s 4-2 win away to Leeds sums up Ralf Rangnick’s team at the minute. They went into the break 2-0 ahead but seemingly fell apart immediately after half-time, as Leeds scored two goals in 120 seconds to turn the game on its head. United responded to win 4-2, such is the difference in quality between the two sides, but their faults were on full display defensively.

United seem happier on the road than they do under the bright lights of Old Trafford. They’ve lost 26% of games in all competitions at home, whereas they’ve lost just 20% of their games on the road. Away from home, they’ve scored in all 16 games in all competitions and will be confident of going to Madrid and getting on the scoresheet.

Cristiano Ronaldo only has one goal in eight games in 2022, but a return to Madrid may reignite his goalscoring touch. CR7 has a ridiculous 25 goals in 35 games against Atletico, a run that includes four hat-tricks! Sevilla are the only team he has ever scored against more (27), so he will no doubt be relishing this trip more than most as he looks to rediscover his form in front of goal.

He scored six goals in the five group games he played and has saved his best performances this year for the European stage.

Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester United Betting Trends

  • Both teams scored in five of Man United’s six Champions League games this season
  • Both teams have scored in 10 of Atletico’s last 16 games in all competitions
  • In 12 of 16 of Man United’s away games in all competitions, both teams scored
  • 56% of United’s away games this season had Over 2.5 goals
  • In 7 of 15 of Atletico Madrid’s home games this season, there have been Over 2.5 goals
  • Atletico Madrid have scored in nine of their last 11 home games in all competitions

Ron foot in the next round

This is an intriguing tie with both sides in and out of form, making it difficult to predict who will come out on top. At the odds, it makes sense to lean towards Manchester United, given their away form this season and Atletico’s European struggles.

Cristiano Ronaldo’s incredible record against Atletico can keep going as United’s star man continues his fine European form, and he can be the difference on the night in Madrid.

The sportsbooks are leaning towards Under 2.5 goals, but the statistics suggest both teams will get their chances, so there’s value in backing United and the Over.

Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-2 Manchester United (+950)

Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester United: Cristiano Ronaldo to score (+188)

Same Game Combo: Manchester United to win, Over 2.5 goals, Cristiano Ronaldo to score (+700)

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