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Chelsea vs. Arsenal betting odds, preview, and pick

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May 11th, 2021

Premier League fans can look forward to a rare mid-week North West London derby on Wednesday when the Gunners visit Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea.

Chelsea are odds-on favorites to win the match, with a low-scoring affair expected between the rivals.

Wed, May 12 2021, 7:15 PM

Chelsea

-136

Draw

+270

Arsenal

+400

Chelsea look to lock up Champions League next season

Things couldn’t be going much better for the Blues at the moment. Thomas Tuchel’s appointment has turned them into an absolute machine, keeping clean sheets in seven of their last eight home matches and suffering defeat just once in their last 16 matches in the league. A victory over Arsenal would secure them a spot in the top four with near certainty, assuring Champions League regardless of what happens in the final against Manchester City.

While they continue to rotate players and determine what their best attacking unit is, scoring against the Gunners has not been an issue. They have scored at least twice in 11 of their last 13 matches against Arsenal at home, and they have not lost to their rivals at Stamford Bridge in 10 straight matches. Their 3-4-2-1 formation sets up perfectly to hit Arsenal in their suspect spine, and chances should be plentiful against an Arsenal side with just two clean sheets in their last 14 Premier League outings.

There should be quite a bit of rotation from the side that won 2-1 at Manchester City over the weekend. Mateo Kovacic continues to be an absence in the center of the park, but Jorginho and Kante should partner in that area again. Chelsea took Kante off in the second half to spare his legs, so he should be ready to go.

Chelsea will want to secure all three points so that they can focus their energies on the FA Cup Final this weekend, and the Champions League final in two weeks time.

Arsenal trying to finish on a high note

For the first time since 1996, the Gunners face a season without European football, as they sit six points adrift of Europa League and fifth place heading into the final three matches. While they are not mathematically eliminated yet, it would take something bigger than a miracle to make up the gap over all the teams ahead of them.

While Arsenal are unbeaten in their last three matches, their two wins came against teams in the bottom five of the Premier League, with the draw in Europa League being a scoreless affair that saw them knocked out of the competition. Injuries have made things difficult at the back, and the number of errors they make in defense will have Chelsea salivating.

Arsenal will continue to be without David Luiz, but manager Mikel Arteta was coy about who else would be dealing with injury. Granit Xhaka is expected to miss the match for certain with injury, which would lead to Bukayo Saka playing left-back again with Willian in front of him.

Trends to keep an eye on

In their last eight home matches in the Premier League, Chelsea have seen fewer than three goals scored in seven of them. Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in seven of those matches, as well. However, at least three goals have been scored in each of their last five meetings with Arsenal in all competitions.

Arsenal have scored at least twice in each of their last three away matches in the league, and have not lost away in the Premier League in five outings. That said, in their last three matches against teams in the top half of the Premier League table, Arsenal have failed to score in two of those and have taken just one point out of a possible nine.

Right now, Chelsea are firing on nearly all cylinders. Their biggest issue is putting away chances at a consistent rate, but they should get plenty of them against an Arsenal side with nothing left to play for except pride. There is a void of tactical direction within the Gunners side, issues within the locker room, and simply no sense of urgency with their play.

Chelsea have not suffered a home defeat to Arsenal in almost 10 years, and there is no sign that will change on Wednesday. With Chelsea’s stellar defensive output of late, and Arsenal’s inability to create and finish their chances, look for the Blues to lock up Champions League and lock down the Gunners on the scoresheet.

Free picks: Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap (-106), Chelsea to win to nil (+180)

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