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Euro 2020: Portugal vs. Germany betting odds, preview, and pick

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June 17th, 2021

It's only been seven years since Germany were crowned World Cup winners, but it likely feels like a lifetime ago to their fans. Joachim Low’s side crashed out of the 2018 World Cup in the group stage sparking huge national embarrassment, and they’re in danger of the same thing happening here if they fail to beat Portugal in Munich on Saturday.

The Portuguese left it late, but eventually saw off Hungary 3-0 in their opening game of Group F. Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice and, in the process, became the highest scoring player in European Championship history.

Sat, June 19 2021, 4:00 PM

Portugal

+225

Draw

+235

Germany

+130

Goals may be at a premium

With the amount of attacking talent on the pitch in Munich it would be no surprise to expect plenty of goals, but that may be misleading. Portugal are no strangers to a high-scoring win – they beat Israel 4-0 in a friendly in June and hammered Andorra 7-0 last November – but when it comes to a competitive fixture with a top ranked team, they are far more disciplined.

In the Nations League they played Spain twice and France twice, and across those four games there was just one goal. In their seven games in Euro 2016 when they became Champions, Portugal only scored seven goals inside 90 minutes, and three of those came in one game against Hungary.

Germany have only failed to score in two of their last 27 games, and although they registered 11 shots in their game against France, Low’s side rarely looked like finding an equalizer with just one finding the target.

Under 2.5 goals at -127 looks like a solid bet.

Early nerves could be a factor

It’s +108 for the teams to be level at half-time and +180 for it to be 0-0, both of which are solid bets. There was only one shot on target in the first half of France vs. Germany, and that was for the French, while Diogo Jota was the only Portuguese player to test out Hungarian keeper Peter Gulacsi in the opening 45 minutes of their match.

Nerves are clearly going to be a factor here, especially for Germany in front of their home fans. Defeat would almost certainly mean they miss out on a top two spot in the group and Low’s side won’t want to fall behind early.

Meanwhile, Portugal know avoiding defeat guarantees them passage to the knock-out round, and similarly won’t want to take too many risks early in the game.

Ronaldo is targeting more records

If any player is to break the deadlock, it’s hard to look past Cristiano Ronaldo who is +480 to score first. The G.O.A.T. of European football only needs four more goals to become the all-time top scorer in international football, which will be serious motivation for a man who has a staggering 45 goals in his last 43 games for Portugal.

Portugal vs. Germany Prediction

I’m swimming against the tide and betting the game to finish 0-0 at +850. Portugal are well disciplined defensively and can nullify a German threat which didn’t inspire much hope against France.

Euro 2020 pick: Portugal 0-0 Germany (+850)


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