Euro 2020: Turkey vs. Italy betting odds, preview, and pick

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June 7th, 2021

Italy are the -186 favorites to top Group A, and they will kickstart their Euro 2020 campaign against Turkey on Friday, June 11. Under the guidance of manager Roberto Mancini, Italy go into the tournament as exciting dark horses. The 2012 finalists haven’t won this tournament since 1968, but this summer Mancini feels they have the perfect blend of youth and experience to go deep into the competition.

The Italians are -167 to beat Turkey in the opening game, with the Turks at +600 and the draw is +265. The game will be held in the Olympic Stadium in Rome, the host of all of Italy’s Group A games giving them the home advantage in all of them.

Fri, June 11 2021, 7:00 PM







Mancini’s Momentum

Mancini made qualifying look easy as he guided Italy to 10 wins in 10 games, scoring 37 goals along the way. But don’t let that fool you, as their qualifying group was significantly weaker than others. Finland, Greece, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Armenia, and Liechtenstein made up Qualifying Group J, and they are all currently outside the top 50 in FIFA’s World Rankings. Italy, meanwhile, are seventh.

But you can only win the games that are put in front of you, and The Azzurri did just that. A blend of solid defensive performances that we’ve come to expect from an Italian side, and the exuberant attacking flair of Ciro Immobile, Federico Chiesa, and Lorenzo Insigne helped secure the perfect 10 for Mancini.

Chelsea’s Jorginho and PSG’s Marco Verratti run the engine room for the Italians, and try to dictate games, bringing the ball out from the back and playing with plenty of width to stretch the pitch.

But they may find the Turks an equally tough nut to crack.

Don’t Underestimate Turkey

While Italy’s qualification was smoother than a Hollywood star’s forehead, Turkey had a far tougher group, yet continued to excel. Despite being in alongside France, Turkey beat them 2-0 at home and drew 1-1 in Paris as they almost pipped them to top spot. Dropped points at home and away to Iceland cost Turkey in the end, but they still qualified as runners-up, and conceded just three goals in the whole of qualifying. No team conceded fewer.

That solid backline includes Leicester’s Caglar Soyuncu and Juventus’ Merih Demiral, both of whom will strike fear into opposition strikers. Okay Yokuslu, who spent last year at West Brom, and Fenerbahce’s Ozan Tufan protect the back four and make it incredibly difficult for teams to break them down.

Up top, Burak Yilmaz may be 35, but he scored 16 goals in 28 games for Lille this year as he helped them shock PSG and win Ligue 1 in France.

A low scoring draw could be in the cards

Given both team’s defensive records, backing Under 2.5 goals at -157 looks like an obvious play, and the draw looks like a tempting bet too at +265. According to the odds, a 1-0 win for Italy is most likely at +450, and a 2-0 win for the Italians is +550. Andrea Belotti and Ciro Immobile are both +390 respectively to open the scoring in the match, with Turkey’s Yilmaz at +1000.

Going back to 1988, four of the eight opening games in the UEFA European Championship have ended in 1-1 draws, which is +600 here and the most tempting bet as Turkey look to frustrate the Italians in the opener.

For the more optimistic bettor, it’s +3300 for Turkey’s Burak Yilmaz to open the scoring and the game to finish 1-1.

Euro 2020 pick: Italy 1-1 Turkey (+600)