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Inter Milan vs. Liverpool: Champions League betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

February 14th, 2022

Two of Europe's most successful clubs go head-to-head on Wednesday, Feb. 16 as Liverpool travel to the San Siro to face Inter Milan in the Last 16 of the Champions League. It's their first meeting since 2008, and Liverpool enter as road favorites.

Inter MilanDrawLiverpool
+265
+270
+100

Out of the frying pan, Inter the fire

Inter Milan are embroiled in a fierce title race in Serie A with just a couple of points separating them from fierce rivals AC Milan and Napoli. They’ve shown their fight to stay in that battle for the title, and it was even more evident as they fought through a tricky group containing Real Madrid to reach this stage of the Champions League.

Simone Inzaghi’s team play a high press, attacking game in Serie A, which is traditionally a 3-5-2, but can drop to a 5-3-2 formation when they’re having to defend. Their dominance in the league over lesser opposition has opened the door for free-flowing expansive football, with Inter averaging 2.3 goals per game.

But they’re more conservative in Europe, and will look to frustrate Liverpool on Tuesday. In 62% of their matches in the league there have been Over 2.5 goals, but this drops to just 33% in Champions League matches.

Their record in all competitions this year at home reads 12-2-3 – the two losses were a 1-0 defeat to Real Madrid where the Spanish side scored in the 89th minute, and a 2-1 derby defeat to AC Milan in which Inter led until the 75th minute. The game with AC Milan is an interesting form-line as Liverpool came from behind to beat AC twice in the Champions League Group Stage, 3-2 at Anfield and 2-1 in the San Siro.

Inter have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their Serie A matches this year and the Italian side will be hoping to nullify Liverpool’s constant attacking threat.

Liverpool’s Italian Job

Liverpool’s title challenge doesn’t look as lively as Inter’s as they remain nine points adrift of Manchester City in England, but their European credentials are still as strong as ever. Despite being pitted in a tough group with Atletico Madrid, Porto, and AC Milan, Liverpool won all six games, and averaged 2.8 goals a game.

Jurgen Klopp was delighted to be able to welcome back Mo Salah and Sadio Mane from the African Cup of Nations, and both players played a part in Liverpool’s 1-0 win over Burnley at the weekend.

That took Liverpool’s unbeaten streak to nine games in all competitions (7-0-2) and Klopp will be desperate to get his hands back on the trophy they lifted in 2019.

This season Liverpool saw off AC Milan twice in the group, with Salah finding the net in both games. He scored seven goals in the group stage and found the net in all but one of the matches, but has one goal in his last five league games – which for someone of his quality is as close to a drought as you’ll get.

In the last 12 years Liverpool are 4-4-1 away from home against Italian opposition, and the last time they faced Inter in Milan, Fernando Torres got the decisive goal as the Reds won 1-0. In each of the last three years, half of the Round of 16 games have had Under 0.5 goals, and despite the attacking quality that will be on the pitch, this may turn into a chess match.

Klopp has reached this stage four times as Liverpool coach, and on three of those occasions the first leg match of the Last 16 had Under 2.5 goals.

Inter Milan vs. Liverpool Betting Trends

  • Four of Inter Milan’s six Champions League games this season had Under 2.5 goals
  • Four of Liverpool’s six Champions League games this season had Over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in four of Liverpool’s six Champions League games this season
  • Both teams scored in two of Inter Milan’s six Champions League games this season
  • Inter are 4-3-5 in home Champions League matches in the last four years
  • Liverpool are 3-1-0 against Inter Milan in the all-time head-to-head

Inter can frustrate the Reds

The sportsbooks seem confident this game has goals in it, and judging by both teams’ form this year, they wouldn’t be wrong. However, there’s value in the Under here. The stakes are high in the Last 16 of the Champions League, and this isn’t a straightforward league game against weaker opposition. Both teams are fighting for silverware domestically and will fancy themselves to make the last eight in the European Cup. You can’t win the tie in the first leg, but you can certainly lose it and I don’t expect either coach to go gung-ho on Tuesday.

A 1-1 draw looks like a good play with both teams full of goals, and the longer it stays at 1-1 the more chance both teams settle for it. The away goal will be huge for Klopp, while Simeone will fancy his team to get a result at Anfield.

Score prediction: Inter Milan 1-1 Liverpool (+600)

Inter Milan vs. Liverpool: Under 2.5 goals (+123)

Same Game Combo: Under 2.5 Goals, game to end in a tie, Over 10.5 corners, Liverpool to have more corners (+1050)

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