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Italy vs. Switzerland: World Cup 2022 Qualifier betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

November 8th, 2021

Domestic football takes a break this week, but there is no shortage of high-profile fixtures across Europe with World Cup Qualifying coming to its conclusion. Some big names are potentially in trouble of missing out on automatic qualification, but the biggest fixture of the week is Italy vs. Switzerland in Group C.

Both teams are locked on 14 points, with Italy sneaking top spot thanks to a better goal difference. The two teams drew 0-0 when they faced each other in Basel in September, which means this clash in Rome is a winner-takes-all.

A win here will guarantee top spot in Group C, while the losing team will have to navigate the nightmare situation of a two-legged playoff.

Italy vs. Switzerland Betting Odds

ItalyDrawSwitzerland
-150
+295
+435

The Italian Job is simple – Win and you’re in

Italy are the reigning European Champions and are the fourth best team in the world according to the FIFA Rankings. They have only tasted defeat once in 39 matches – a 2-1 loss to Spain in the Nations League Semi Final – but they are far from invincible, and will want to see this game off to ensure top spot.

Memories of their European Championship win on penalties against England in the final at Wembley last summer will live long in the memory for Italian fans, but those same fans will remember Italy also finishing second in the World Cup 2018 Qualifying Group and then missing out on the tournament as they lost a playoff 1-0 to Sweden. They won’t want a repeat of that disaster, which saw three senior players immediately retire, while coach Gian Piero Ventura got the boot.

They have been almost perfect in qualifying this year, winning four and drawing two of their six games. They’ve conceded just one goal (in a 1-1 draw with Belgium) and are in fine goalscoring form – scoring in 20 of their last 21 matches. The exception? A 0-0 draw away to Switzerland...

The Swiss are on a roll

Switzerland will not hold any fear against the Italians, despite the Azzurri beating them 3-0 in the summer’s European Championship. Italy were irresistible that night in Rome, but the Swiss will take faith that that is their only loss inside 90 minutes in their last 17 matches.

Murat Yakin’s side knocked the favorites France out in the Last 16 of the Euros, and were unfortunate to only go out to Spain in the Quarter Finals on penalties. They’ve made five of the last six major tournaments and are in a golden era for Swiss football spearheaded by midfielder Xherdan Shaqiri.

Similar to Italy, Switzerland have won four and drawn two of their six games this qualifying campaign, scoring 10 and conceding just once. The Swiss dropped out of the top 10 teams in the world in 2019, but are still a consistent threat and drew Germany and Spain in the Nations League.

Italy vs. Switzerland Betting Trends

  • Switzerland have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four games
  • Italy have conceded a goal in six of their last eight games
  • Both teams have scored in six of Italy’s last eight games
  • Four of Switzerland’s last six games have gone Under 2.5 goals
  • Four of the last five matches between Italy and Switzerland have ended in a draw
  • Six of the last eight games between Italy and Switzerland have gone Under 2.5 goals

Italy ooze class

This looks all set up to be a close contest, with both teams prepared to defend well and nullify the opposition. A draw looks like a fair result, particularly given the recent history between these two sides, but Switzerland’s mounting injury worries could give Italy the edge. The Swiss are going to be potentially without six first team starters, and that could be enough of an advantage for Italy to get the job done in Rome. Back this to be low scoring, but the European Champions should pick up three points and guarantee their World Cup spot.

Score prediction: Italy 1-0 Switzerland (+500)

Italy vs. Switzerland pick: Under 2.5 goals (-143)

Same Game Combo: Both teams to score (No), Under 2.5 goals, Federico Chiesa to score (+1000)

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