Liverpool vs. Leeds: Premier League betting odds, preview, and pick

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December 21st, 2021

December 26 is traditionally one of the best days of the Premier League calendar, and while Liverpool fans heading to Anfield are looking forward to a Christmas cracker, Leeds United are probably as nervous as the young lads on Santa’s Naughty List.

It’s a tale of two very different teams clashing on Merseyside. Liverpool are just three points off the top of the table, while Leeds are free-falling dangerously close to relegation. Can they stop the slide?

Sun, December 26 2021, 12:30 PM





Leeds United


Forget Ho Ho Ho, it’s Go Go Goals for Liverpool

Liverpool fans are champing at the bit to be in a title race with Manchester City, which is sure to provide many twists and turns over the next five months. Jurgen Klopp was left furious with some of the refereeing decisions as the Reds dropped two points in a 2-2 draw with Tottenham on the weekend, but Liverpool are just three points behind City and unbeaten in their last seven league games.

The Reds are scoring for fun, and now have 50 goals in just 18 games this season. That’s an average of 2.78 goals per game, and it puts them on track to score 105 goals this season – threatening Manchester City’s record of 106 in 2017-18. Their haul of 50 goals is four more than in their title winning campaign in 2019-20.

Half of those goals have been scored by Mo Salah and Diogo Jota, who have proved to be a deadly duo up front this season for the Reds. And defensively they aren’t bad either – conceding just six goals at Anfield this season, an average of 0.67 goals per game.

Liverpool are one of the most in-form teams in the league - Manchester City are the only side with more points per game in the last eight games – and they’re the only Premier League team to have scored in every single game this season.

Bielsa in danger of being a real Christmas turkey

While Liverpool are flying, there are only two Premier League teams in worse form than Leeds, who have gone 1-4-3 in their last eight games, picking up just 0.75 points per game. Marcelo Bielsa’s side are on a three-game slide, losing 3-2 away to Chelsea, 7-0 away to Manchester City, and 4-1 at home to Arsenal, in the last two weeks.

Newcastle United are the only team that have conceded more goals than Leeds this season, with Bielsa’s style of football leaving the Yorkshire side exposed at the back plenty of times each game. Against top half teams, Leeds’ record this season is 0-7-2, and they’ve conceded a whopping 28 goals (3.1 a game) while scoring just eight (0.89 a game).

It’s a disastrous season for Leeds, who finished ninth last year after returning from the Championship. Bielsa has been without several key players and COVID-19 has had an impact on the squad, but now they’re stuck flirting with a relegation battle.

Leeds are five points above the drop zone, but have played several more games than Watford and Burnley below them. While the fans don’t appear to want to turn on the coach, they’ve suffered several heavy defeats in the last fortnight, and another one at Anfield would heap the pressure on.

Liverpool vs. Leeds Betting Trends

  • There have been Over 2.5 goals in 78% of Liverpool’s league games this season
  • Both teams have scored in 67% of Leeds’ league games this season
  • Liverpool have kept clean sheets in 56% of their league games this season
  • Liverpool have scored in 100% of league games this season
  • Liverpool are 8-0-3 straight-up against Leeds in the last 20 years
  • Leeds have conceded a goal in 83% of their league games this season

A Christmas Cracker at Anfield

This has all the makings of an absolute thriller for us to enjoy as we try and get through the Christmas hangover. Liverpool are scoring goals for fun and have one of the most dangerous attacking duos in the league, while Leeds play an open, expansive style that leaves them exposed at the back, and they've conceded 14 goals in their last three games.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that unless Leeds drastically change their style of play in the coming days, this could be easy pickings for Jurgen Klopp's men, who will be stung after falling further behind Man City last week. Leeds are set to bear the brunt of the backlash, and there's value in backing plenty of goals for the home side.  

Score prediction: Liverpool 5-0 Leeds

Liverpool vs. Leeds: Liverpool -3 (Asian Handicap) (+165)

Same Game Combo: Liverpool Over 3.5 goals, Leeds not to score, and Mo Salah to score at least two goals (+750)