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Manchester City vs. Chelsea: Premier League betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

January 11th, 2022

Manchester City face Chelsea in the opening game of this weekend’s Premier League slate, and it’s a match which will have huge ramifications on the title race. A win for Pep Guardiola’s City would put 13 points between them and Chelsea, and essentially put Thomas Tuchel’s men out of the title race. A win for Chelsea, however, cuts the gap to seven, and suddenly could hurl Liverpool within five points of City.

All things considered, it's a massive title-defining game at the Etihad Stadium.

Sat, January 15 2022, 12:30 PM

Manchester City

-150

Draw

+300

Chelsea

+400

City’s Domestic Dominance

Manchester City’s last-gasp comeback against Arsenal two weeks ago stretched their winning run in the Premier League to 11 games. An impressive feat, that is merely something of the norm for City in recent years. In the 2017-18 season they set the record with 18 consecutive wins, and in 2018-19 finished the season off with 14 wins on the trot.

Their current 11-game run has been nothing short of flawless, as the Citizens have scored 33 times (3.0 per game), and conceded just seven (0.64 per game). It’s a run that has included wins away to Manchester United and Arsenal, as well as tricky home games against West Ham and Leicester City.

Pep’s side have 52 points after just 21 games, which is their second-best campaign to this point in the last 12 years.

Riyad Mahrez scored in his last five Man City games in a row, but he has gone to captain Algeria in the African Cup of Nations so will miss this big clash with Chelsea. But the home side aren’t short of attacking options with Bernardo Silva, Raheem Sterling, Kevin De Bruyne, and Phil Foden all on five league goals or more this season. At the back, no keeper has kept more clean sheets than Ederson this season (11), and City will be full of confidence haven given a lot of their key men a rest against Swindon in last week’s FA Cup game.

Trouble for Tuchel?   

Chelsea fans will have enjoyed the last couple of weeks as they’ve watched their side comfortably beat London rivals Tottenham in the first leg of the League Cup, before effortlessly sweeping aside lower-league Chesterfield 5-1 in the FA Cup.

But is that just papering over some cracks in Thomas Tuchel’s team?

Isolating their league form alone, Chelsea have won just one of their last five games, and although they’re unbeaten in that run they’ve picked up just seven points from a possible 15. Overall this season, Chelsea have won an average of 2.05 points per game – but that’s dropped to 1.63 points per game in their last eight matches.

Tuchel’s side conceded just four goals in their opening 12 league games but have now conceded 12 in their last nine. It’s a significant worry that’s only become more apparent now that Edouard Mendy is out of the squad as he’s playing for Senegal in the African Cup of Nations.

Their record against the top nine teams this year is 2-2-5, which is a stark contrast to City’s, which reads 7-1-1. But the good news for Chelsea is they have one of the best away records in the league, picking up 23 points from a possible 30, and they’ve won four of the last six against Man City.   

Manchester City vs. Chelsea Betting Trends

  • Eight of the last 12 matches between Manchester City and Chelsea have gone Over 2.5 Goals
  • Chelsea have kept one clean sheet in their last nine league games
  • Eight of Manchester City’s last 10 games have gone Over 2.5 Goals
  • Both teams have scored in eight of Chelsea’s last nine league games
  • Manchester City have scored in 15 of their last 16 league games
  • Manchester City’s record against Chelsea in the last 20 league games is 10-7-3

The final nail in Chelsea’s title challenge

Manchester City’s flying form looks unstoppable currently, and despite Chelsea’s squad full of talent, it’s difficult to see them going on the road and hitting the brakes on Pep’s title charge. Tuchel’s team have dropped too many points recently in the league, and this mid-season blip should continue at the Etihad.

Chelsea have conceded in the first half in five of their last eight games, while Man City have led at the break in 10 of their last 11 games. This should be another fast start at home, and although I fancy Chelsea to find the net, City have the quality to find a way to win and take another huge step towards retaining their crown.

Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Chelsea (+700)

Manchester City vs. Chelsea: Half time/Full time Manchester City/Manchester City (+150)

Same Game Combo: Manchester City to win, Both teams to score, Kevin De Bruyne to score a goal (+700)

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