Manchester City vs. Leeds United: Premier League betting odds, preview, and pick

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December 13th, 2021

Tuesday’s clash at the Etihad Stadium has significant impact on both ends of the table as Leeds United hop over the Pennines to face Manchester City. Pep Guardiola’s men are sitting pretty at the top of the table, having won seven league games on the spin, but they can’t let that momentum drop as both Liverpool and Chelsea are in striking distance.

Meanwhile, Leeds United have won only one of the last six and find themselves just five points above the relegation zone and in worse recent form than both Burnley and Norwich. Things are threatening to unravel quickly for Marcelo Bielsa as the Yorkshire side aim to stop the rot.

Tue, December 14 2021, 8:00 PM

Manchester City




Leeds United


Déjà vu at City?

Last season, Manchester City put a historic Premier League run together as they won 15 games in a row to effectively put the title race to bed, coming from four points behind Liverpool to win it at a canter. That run started on Dec. 19, and this year it looks like déjà vu and has started even earlier.

Pep Guardiola’s men have now won six Premier League games on the spin and have gone back to the top of the table as they look to kick on and retain the league title. While there were complaints about the penalty that decided Saturday’s game against Wolves, there was no debate over the better team as Guardiola’s side had 71% of the ball and 18 shots to Wolves’ two.

City have won eight of the last nine with Raheem Sterling (three goals in his last five) and Bernardo Silva (five goals in his last six) firing them to some fantastic late 2020 form. In total, City are averaging 2.25 goals per game at home this season – way above the league average of 1.53. But they are equally as strong at the back, keeping six clean sheets in their eight league games at the Etihad this season. Ederson has conceded just 0.6 goals a game on average, the lowest in the Premier League, and he’s saved 72% of shots he’s faced this year.

No team has picked up as many points as Manchester City in the last eight games, and that red-hot form should continue here.

Marching down together?

The Leeds United anthem from the 1970s talks about the club marching on together, but the worry from many in Yorkshire is that the club will march down together instead. Leeds have won just two of their last nine games, and their record against top half teams this season is a woeful 0-5-3. The Whites have managed to win just one game on the road all season, and that came against bottom club Norwich at the end of October.

It’s not for a lack of trying – they’ve found the net in seven of the last eight league games, despite only winning two of them. The problem is at the back, where they’ve conceded in 81% of matches this year. At this point last season, Leeds had won 47% of their games, a tally that has dropped to 19% this year.

Worryingly for Leeds fans, this game comes off the back of a heartbreaking 3-2 defeat away to Chelsea, and after their trip to the Etihad they play Arsenal at home and Liverpool at Anfield. It certainly doesn’t get any easier for Bielsa’s side.

The one bright spark for Leeds is that they won this fixture last season, despite playing half of the game with 10 men. Liam Cooper was sent off shortly after Stuart Dallas gave Leeds the lead, but Ferran Torres equalised for City. Dallas shocked the Champions-elect though with a goal in stoppage time to secure a remarkable win.

Manchester City vs. Leeds Betting Trends

  • Leeds have conceded in 81% of their league games this season
  • Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their home games in the league this year
  • Both teams have scored in 75% of Leeds’ away matches in the league this year
  • Manchester City have conceded just four goals in eight games against bottom half teams this season
  • There have been Over 2.5 goals in 50% of Leeds’ league games this season
  • There have been Over 2.5 goals in four of Manchester City’s last five league games

City will hit the front early

Manchester City are no strangers to a fast start and have led at half-time in seven of their last nine matches. 69% of Leeds’ matches have had at least one goal in the first half, so seeing City go in at the break ahead would be no surprise. Despite Ederson’s fantastic efforts at home this season, Leeds certainly have a goal in them, and City have shown a tendency to take their foot off the gas – conceding consolation goals to West Ham, Aston Villa, and Watford in three of the last four games. The problem for Leeds is that when they do find the back of the net, it may be too late…  

Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Leeds (+950)

Manchester City vs. Leeds Pick: Manchester City/Manchester City Half Time/Full Time (-235)

Same Game Combo: Manchester City to win, Over 3.5 goals, Bernardo Silva and Raheem Sterling to score (+600)