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Premier League Championship Odds update: The road runs through Manchester

Profile Picture: Jason Ence

January 27th, 2021

With nearly every team in the Premier League now halfway through their fixtures for the 2020-21 campaign, it's time to take at the latest EPL championship odds.

Premier League Championship Odds

TeamOdds
Manchester City
-250
Manchester United
+550
Liverpool
+800
Leicester City
+2200
Tottenham
+2500

The odds for many teams have shifted significantly from just a month ago, as Liverpool has fallen down the ranks while Manchester City has swiftly risen to the clear favorite. City finished Tuesday as the ninth different club to top the table this season, indicating just how competitive the league has been thus far.

Let’s break down the chances of the top four teams in terms of odds, look at how they are trending, and evaluate their chances entering the second half of the Premier League campaign.

Manchester City (41 points through 19 matches)

The Citizens have flipped their odds over the past six weeks, moving from +200 in mid-December. This is due in large part to their run of seven victories in the Premier League, with their last dropped point coming in a 1-1 draw with West Brom on Dec. 15. Across all competitions, they have won 11 consecutive matches and seem to have fully found their footing under Pep Guardiola.

Over those seven wins in the league, their longest winning run in more than three years, City have scored 18 goals while conceding just once. In fact, since their 2-0 defeat to Tottenham on Nov. 21, Pep’s men have kept a clean sheet in nine of their last 11 in league play. That run extended on Tuesday with a dominant 5-0 victory over West Brom, their first match without Kevin De Bruyne, who will be out four to six weeks with a hamstring injury.

How they manage De Bruyne’s absence will likely determine if they win the title. While Ilkay Gundogan filled in nicely on Tuesday, West Brom are the worst team in the league. De Bruyne has been vital to turning draws into wins against teams that have parked the bus against City, and his ability to pick the lock to those defenses will be sorely missed.

February will see them face off with Liverpool, Tottenham, and Arsenal in a two week span, followed quickly by a Champions League tie. If they navigate that span without dropping points, the title is likely theirs. Losses to any of them, especially more than one, leaves the door wide open for others to walk through.

Manchester United (40 points through 19 matches)

One of those teams will be cross-town rival Manchester United, who sit one point behind them heading into Wednesday’s match with Sheffield United. The Red Devils are having a terrific season, setting the league record for most consecutive away victories and having dropped points away from Old Trafford just twice this campaign. As such, their odds from six weeks ago have been cut by two-thirds, dropping from +1800 to just +550 to win the title.

The rise in Paul Pogba’s form has elevated this team to another level, as his partnership with Bruno Fernandes provides them a solid midfield in attack. Their upcoming run of matches are quite favorable, with three of their next six coming against sides in the bottom five of the table. However, rotation could come into play, as they also have the FA Cup and Europa League to concern themselves with over the next month.

Matches upcoming at Arsenal and home to Everton will be big tests, but the key stretch will be when they visit Chelsea at the end of February, followed by a trip to Manchester City a week later. If current form holds for both clubs, the Manchester Derby on Mar. 6 could be a true championship decider.

Liverpool (34 points through 19 matches)

No team has seen their stock plummet faster than Liverpool’s, as Jurgen Klopp’s side have dropped from +175 favorites in mid-December to getting eight-to-one odds now. Those odds might still fall further, given the issues they have with defender injuries and poor form. Liverpool suffered their first defeat in more than three years when they fell last weekend to Burnley, and since a 7-0 win over Crystal Palace on Dec. 19, the Reds have scored just once in league play, failing to score in their last four.

Things will not get any easier over the next two weeks, as four of their next five matches come against teams in the top six of the table. Visits to Tottenham and West Ham on the front end of that stretch will likely see them drop more points, while matches against Manchester City and Leicester City in two weeks may very well bury their title chances for good. Already seven points adrift, it will take a massive shift in form to save Liverpool’s hopes at a top-four finish at this point.

Leicester City (38 points through 19 matches)

Leicester has also seen their odds drop a bit, going from +3300 down to +2200. They are an outsider, but an interesting one. Over their last nine matches in the league, they have six wins with a pair of draws, and have scored multiple goals in eight of those nine matches. The impressive part is that Jamie Vardy has not had to carry the scoring load himself, with midfielders Harvey Barnes and James Maddison each adding six goals.

Over their next sixteen matches, just six come against sides in the top half of the table, meaning if their run of form continues they could very well be within striking distance at the end of the season. That end would feature consecutive matches against United, Chelsea, and Tottenham. While winning the title might be too tall an ask, it is worth taking a look at their odds to finish top four, which you can get right now for even money.

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