Premier League Gameweek 25: The best player prop bets for Mahrez, James, and Son Heung-Min
The Premier League returns this weekend to help set us up for a thrilling couple of days culminating in the Super Bowl on Sunday evening. There’s sure to be fireworks in California, but sparks could also fly across a fantastic slate of soccer that has the potential to be incredibly high scoring.
Here are the best player props in three of the weekend’s most exciting clashes.
Sat, February 12 2022, 5:30 PM
The second-highest scorers in the league, Manchester City, travel to the league’s leakiest defense on Saturday as they take the trip to Carrow Road to face Norwich. Pep Guardiola’s team average 2.4 goals a game this season, rising to 3.0 goals a game against teams in the bottom half of the table. Norwich have conceded exactly 2.0 goals a game, and that rises to 2.5 goals a game against top half sides.
So, City to score at least a couple looks a safe bet, and at +120 Riyad Mahrez is great value to be one of the names on the scoresheet. Mahrez had scored in five consecutive games for City between Dec. 7 and Jan. 1 before he travelled to the African Cup of Nations with Algeria. Algeria were knocked out in the group stage, and Mahrez failed to score in three games, but that disruption hasn’t seemed to impact his club form.
Since returning to Manchester, Mahrez scored twice in the FA Cup win against Fulham and then opened the scoring from the penalty spot as City beat Brentford 2-0 on Wednesday. That means it’s been five consecutive league games that Mahrez has found the back of the net, and in that time he’s averaged three shots per game and has a conversion rate of 33%.
City have won the last two league games versus Norwich 5-0, and Mahrez scored in both of those wins. He’s great value to find the net against the Canaries again.
Sat, February 12 2022, 3:00 PM
In another game where we’re surely going to see goals, Leeds United travel to Goodison Park to take on manager-less Everton, with the Toffees in danger of being dragged into a relegation battle after picking up just four points from the last 10 games.
Games involving Leeds this year average 3.2 goals a game, and that number jumps to a massive 4.6 goals a game in the last eight matches Leeds have played. Everton aren’t that far behind either, with 3.4 total goals a game in their last eight matches. Both teams rank inside the top six for total goals a game in the last eight.
Both teams have plenty of goals in them and neither can defend, so the challenge becomes settling on which player will find the back of the net. Welshman Daniel James stands out as he continues to revive his career with Leeds after a disastrous spell at Manchester United.
James had a quiet spell during December as Leeds’ form dipped, but since the turn of the year he’s averaged three shots per game in the league and scored three times, at a conversion rate of 25%. He’s already on course for his best season in front of goal and can take advantage of a woeful Everton defense this weekend.
Sun, February 13 2022, 2:00 PM
Son Heung-min had scored in four of his six league games between the start of December and January until a muscle injury put him on the shelf for the better part of a month. However, the South Korean star made his return in the FA Cup last week, getting 60 minutes into his legs in the 3-1 win against Brighton as he started to find match fitness again. On Wednesday he looked sharper and found the back of the net against Southampton, albeit in defeat, meaning he now has five goals in his last seven league games.
His return is a huge boost for Spurs, as not only is Heung-min the club’s highest scorer in the league this season, he’s also the most clinical. Of the four Tottenham players who have had at least 20 shots this season, he has a 20% conversion rate, with everyone else on 10% or less.
Tottenham's leading players in front of goal this season
|Player||Shots on Goal||Goals||Conversion Rate|
That level of efficiency in front of goal makes him an intriguing prospect against Wolves. The away side have only conceded an average of 0.76 goals a game this season, which is one of the strongest defenses in the division, but Spurs have been strong of late. At home under Antonio Conte, Tottenham have averaged 2.3 goals a game and Son Heung-min is quickly overtaking Harry Kane as the value play in the goalscorer markets.