Premier League Parlay for Gameweek 35
Elvis Presley said that home is where the heart is, and while I don’t make a habit of disagreeing with Elvis, there are three away teams in the Premier League this week that set us up with a perfect parlay.
The restriction on supporters means home advantage doesn’t quite pack the punch it did I previous seasons in the Premier League. While the away team still has to organize travel and a team hotel, they no longer have to worry about a stadium full of fans passionately cheering on the opposition.
In fact, only 40% of teams this season have picked up more points at home than they have playing away. With that in mind, here are three teams in flying form on the road in a parlay designed to return $117 from a $10 stake.
Tottenham to beat Leeds United
Sat, May 8 2021, 11:30 AM
Tottenham should have got some confidence back last week as a Gareth Bale hat-trick helped inspire them to a 4-0 hammering of Sheffield United. That result came off the back of a rotten few weeks where they sacked manager Jose Mourinho and lost the League Cup Final 1-0 to Man City.
But under new gaffer Ryan Mason and with a top four spot not completely out of the picture, Spurs will need to end the season on a high – something they can continue away to Leeds United.
While Tottenham’s results against the top teams in the league are disappointing, when it comes to teams below them, they are pure flat-track bullies. Against the top eight, Tottenham’s record reads won two, drawn three, lost eight. That’s a win rate of just 15%. But against teams in the bottom half of the table their record becomes won 12, drawn five, lost one. A win rate of 67%.
Leeds sit in 11th, and enter the final four games of the season with nothing really to play for. They’ve done enough to stifle teams at Elland Road, taking a point off Chelsea, Liverpool, and Man United in the last two months, but in each of those games they were well beaten in the shot count. United beat them 11-4 in shots, Liverpool beat them 13-9 and Chelsea won 10-4. Those numbers suggest their luck may be about to run out.
It’s been a long season for these players, and it would be no surprise if Leeds were taking their foot off the gas a little. But for Tottenham every game is now a must-win, and that extra impetus can carry them to a victory at Elland Road.
Manchester United to beat Aston Villa
Sun, May 9 2021, 1:05 PM
Manchester United are one of the teams picking up more points away than at home this season – averaging 2.18 on the road and just 1.88 at Old Trafford. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men have yet to taste defeat away from home in the league this season, winning nine and drawing seven of their 16 matches.
The Red Devils are about to enter a spell of four league matches in nine days with the fixture congestion piling up at the end of the year, and with a Europa League Final to come, the manager may want to start resting players. That’s something he could afford to do after a win here as three points would mean United are mathematically guaranteed a top four finish and Champions League football next season. That’s a nice incentive to see off Villa.
The Villans themselves are a lot like Leeds, coasting towards a mid-table finish. They’ve won just two of their last nine league games, and that includes dropping points to West Brom, Newcastle, and Sheffield United.
Dean Smith’s side have lost seven of their nine games against top six sides this season, including all four of their home matches. Meanwhile you have to go back 26 years to August 1995 to see when Villa last beat United at home – a 3-1 win which famously sparked Alan Hansen’s "You’ll never win anything with kids" rant. Since then, United have won 14 and drawn seven of the 21 league games at Villa Park and can add yet another notch to that winning tally this weekend.
Everton to beat West Ham
Sun, May 9 2021, 3:30 PM
Everton are a clear example of a team to side with when they are playing away. If the league table was done on home games alone, the Toffees would have just 19 points from 17 games and be sat 15th and in danger of relegation. If the table was purely away games, they’d have 33 points from 16 games and be fourth – ahead of Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Tottenham.
On bare form, they have won just one of their last seven league games and that would not inspire confidence, but away from home they’ve lost just one of the last 12 – winning eight and drawing three.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side have beaten Arsenal, Liverpool, Leicester, and Spurs on the road this season, as well as playing out that epic 3-3 draw with Manchester United at Old Trafford.
This weekend’s clash with West Ham could have big ramifications in the race for the top four, and Hammers fans will be confident after coming from behind to beat Burnley on Monday.
But in the last 12 league meetings between these teams at West Ham, the home side have won just once – a 3-1 win back in May 2018. Everton have seven wins and four draws away to West Ham in that time, and come into this game as one of the most feared teams in the league when playing on the road.