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Premier League Parlay for Matchweek 36

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May 14th, 2021

There are three games left in this Premier League season, but the kings have already been crowned and those destined for life in the Championship have already been dealt their fate. Manchester City wear the crown, while Sheffield United, West Brom, and Fulham are all relegated. But there are still parlays to pick and money to be won.

This week's three-game Premier League parlay kick-starts with West Ham’s trip to Brighton.

West Ham (+140) to beat Brighton

BrightonDrawWest Ham
+195
+250
+140

West Ham’s dreams of a top four finish appear to be disappearing quite rapidly after a rotten run of results, but David Moyes’ team can at least put the pressure on teams above them with a win away to Brighton.

The Hammers were shambolic in their 3-2 defeat to Newcastle and then lost narrow games to Chelsea and Everton to leave them two points behind Liverpool and six behind Chelsea. But they are better than those results on paper, and can prove that away to a Brighton team that have won just once in the last six games.

West Ham’s record against bottom half sides this season is won 11, drawn 4, lost 2 – a win percentage of 65%. The only away game they’ve lost against bottom half teams was that five-goal thriller with Newcastle, and that appears to be the anomaly. Moyes’ men appear to have the key to beating the sides below them.

Brighton sit 17th in the league but are mathematically safe, which is lucky for Graham Potter as their last three games are against West Ham, Man City, and Arsenal. It would be no surprise to see the Seagulls fail to pick up a point for the rest of the season.

The last four games between these two sides have all been score draws, but West Ham can edge this contest and keep up the hunt for a Champions League spot.

Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa – Under 2.5 Goals (-110)

Crystal PalaceDrawAston Villa
+205
+250
+130

It may have gone slightly unnoticed this season, but only Manchester City and Arsenal have kept more clean sheets than Aston Villa. Dean Smith’s side have conceded just 41 goals in 35 games, and away from home have been particularly stingy.

Villa have collected more clean sheets than a busy laundrette - already racking up shut-outs away to Leicester, Arsenal, Leeds, Wolves, Southampton, Brighton, Fulham, and West Brom. Now they take on a Palace side who have averaged just 0.94 goals a game at home this year.

11 of Palace’s 17 matches at home this year have featured Under 2.5 goals – a 65% strike rate, which rises to 73% when you take out home games against the top six.

In the last decade seven of the nine matches between these two have featured Under 2.5 goals, and with both teams firmly in mid-table and with little to play for, it would be no surprise to see this game finish a low-scoring affair.

Liverpool (-425) to beat West Brom

West BromDrawLiverpool
+1000
+600
-425

One team with everything to play for is Liverpool. Last year’s champs were officially dethroned by Man City this week, but despite that it wasn’t a bad week. Leicester dropped points to Newcastle, Chelsea lost at home to Arsenal, and Liverpool themselves won a thriller at Old Trafford – all combining to put Jurgen Klopp’s side slap-bang in the mix for a top four finish.

Liverpool are unbeaten in seven league games, winning five and drawing two and they’ve scored an average of two goals a game in that run. Klopp’s men have been incredibly poor against the bottom six sides this year, winning just two of their 10 matches against them, but with the pressure on to get a Champions League spot, they can turn on the style.

The Baggies have lost 19 times this season and have already been relegated, so Big Sam Allardyce’s team will be forgiven for checking out. Of their 19 losses this year, 63% have been by two goals or more and they’ve suffered home humiliations against Man City (5-0), Leicester (3-0), Arsenal (4-0), Leeds (5-0), Aston Villa (3-0), and even Crystal Palace (5-1).

Liverpool’s attacking prowess this year has been significantly blunted – they scored 84 times in 2017-18, 89 times in 2018-19, and 85 times last season, but have only bagged 61 so far this year. Even so, with a morale-boosting four goals at Old Trafford on Thursday, a top four space up for grabs, and a hapless West Brom defense to take aim at, the stars have aligned this weekend.

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