Premier League parlay for Matchweek 38

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

May 20th, 2021

We’ve reached the curtain call on the 2020-2021 Premier League season, and it has been a strange out.

No fans at games put a significant dent in home advantage, with 150 away wins, the most in the history of England’s top four tiers. Southampton lost 9-0 to Manchester United, which was beaten 6-1 by Tottenham. Liverpool lost 7-2 to Aston Villa, but Jurgen Klopp’s men also dished out a 7-0 hammering to Crystal Palace. Second-place Man United conceded more goals at home than Fulham, who was relegated, while Chelsea scored fewer goals than Leeds but finished seven places ahead.

It has been a mad season, and while we already know Manchester City is champion, there are three strikers who have their eyes on some goal-scoring milestones this weekend.

A $10 parlay on all three to score first would return $816, or all three to score anytime would return $52.

Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace: Mohamed Salah, first goalscorer (+235), any time (-220)

Salah has won the Golden Boot in 2017-2018 and 2018-2019, and a goal at Anfield against Crystal Palace this weekend could give him the honor again.

Salah has 22 goals in 36 Premier League games this season (and six in the Champions League) and has buried 18% of his shots. It’s a deadly conversion rate for the Egyptian, who started the season with a hat-trick against Leeds and hasn’t slowed since.

Liverpool needs a win to hang on to fourth place, so the stakes are high in this home game. The Reds are on a serious run of form in the league. They are unbeaten in nine games, with seven wins and two draws.

Now they face former manager Roy Hodgson in his last game as manager for Crystal Palace. The Eagles have lost five of their last seven games and have conceded in 89% of their games on the road this year. It’s fairly bleak for Palace, and Liverpool can put them to the sword on Sunday.

Salah has five goals in his last eight league games, and in just a half-hour against Palace in December, he scored twice. With the full 90 minutes at his feet Sunday, and the pressure on Liverpool to win, expect him to do what he does best and find the back of the net.

Leicester vs. Tottenham: Harry Kane, first goalscorer (+480), any time (+148)

It looks like Harry Kane is about to leave Tottenham Hotspur for greener pastures, and while that may be disappointing for Spurs fans, he could sign off with another Premier League Golden Boot.

He currently tops the charts with 22 goals, alongside Salah, and while Kane is ahead by virtue of his assists, if Salah scores, Kane will need to match.

Kane has had another incredible season in front of goal. Take away Kane’s goals this season and Tottenham would drop to 12th in the league. He has scored 34% of Tottenham’s goals this season.

Now Spurs will travel to Leicester, and the Foxes need a win to keep their hopes of a Champions League place alive. While Tottenham has less to play for, this could lend itself to an open game. Leicester will have to attack and leave gaps for Tottenham to exploit.

Kane has scored 10 goals in his last seven games against the Foxes, so he clearly enjoys taking on Leicester, and with the Golden Boot at stake (his first for four years), I’m sure Kane would like to finish his Tottenham career with a score.

Leeds vs. West Brom: Patrick Bamford, first goalscorer (+325), any time (-136)

Bamford had had fleeting Premier League runs before this season. Loan spells with Crystal Palace, Norwich, Burnley, and Middlesbrough through the years gave him a total of 27 top-flight games and just a single goal, as he struggled to get a consistent run.

But now at Leeds, in his first full-time Premier League season, he has excelled.

Bamford has averaged a goal every 189 minutes this season and has a conversion rate of 15%. He has scored against Liverpool, Chelsea, Leicester, and Tottenham and has contributed 27% of Leeds’ Premier League goals this season.

He has been integral to Leeds' top-half finish and only needs one more goal to equal his best league season tally.

It must be delightful for Bamford to see Leeds’ last game is at home to West Brom, which is preparing for life in the Championship with a new manager next year. The Baggies have conceded in 84% of their league games this year and only have one clean sheet away from home all season — a depressing 0-0 draw with Burnley.

Bamford wasn’t on the scoresheet when Leeds hammered West Brom, 5-0, in December, but he will be keen to make amends for that Sunday, with a glimmer of a spot in England’s Euro squad on the line.

A goal would mean Bamford is the second-highest scoring Englishman in the league this year and would surely be enough to capture the attention of Gareth Southgate.