Premier League parlay picks for Matchweek 31
It is a thrilling weekend of sport with the Masters at Augusta taking center stage in golf, the Grand National in Liverpool, and the grand-daddy of them all, two nights of WrestleMania!
The cherry on top of that cake is the usual slate of Premier League fixtures, and for this week’s parlay we’re looking at a couple of high-scoring thrillers and two games which could be tightly contested.
A $10 parlay returns $90, and the first match to take note of is at Etihad Stadium with the Champions-elect Manchester City.
Manchester City vs. Leeds: Over 2.5 Goals (-210)
Sat, April 10 2021, 11:30 AM
Man City remain in cruise control on their way to a Premier League crown, and incredibly have won 27 of their last 28 games in all competitions. It’s their goalscoring prowess I’m most interested in here – with Pep Guardiola’s team finding the net 16 times in their last six games.
Four of their last five home league games have featured Over 2.5 games – with the only exception being a 2-0 defeat to cross-city rivals Man United – and now they welcome Leeds.
Leeds are the most exciting team to watch for the casual fan, with their matches averaging a total of 3.17 goals per game, more than anyone else in the top flight. That number rises to 3.73 if you just consider Leeds’ 15 away games and this bet would’ve clicked in 11 of those matches.
The Yorkshire team’s style of play lends itself to a high-scoring game, and that can open the door for City’s incredible array of attacking talent.
Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea: Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
Chelsea’s 5-2 defeat to West Brom last week was as surprising as the fact that Bruce Springsteen has never had a hit single on the Billboard Hot 100. Mind-boggling.
This Chelsea side had been defensively sound since the turn of the year, keeping 12 clean sheets in Thomas Tuchel’s 14 games.
So to suddenly ship five against a side that has failed to score in half of their games this season is madness, and I’m happy to ignore it.
Palace have only scored five goals in their last eight games, so they aren’t going to suddenly go goal-crazy at home to the blues. This bet would’ve clicked in 66% of Palace’s home games this season, and four of their last five games at Selhurst Park have either ended 0-0 or 1-0.
Burnley vs. Newcastle: Under 2.5 Goals (-165)
One game that won’t be a thriller is Newcastle’s trip to Burnley. The Magpies are in danger of going down after being dragged into a relegation fight, and they will get no favours at Turf Moore.
In Newcastle’s last 11 away games in all competitions, they’ve failed to find the net in nine of them. Meanwhile Burnley’s last seven straight home games in all competitions have all had Under 2.5 goals. It’s starting to feel like watching 90 minutes of this match would be a form of torture.
In games at Turf Moore this year there has been an average of 1.87 goals per game and 80% of them have had Under 2.5 goals. Meanwhile, 73% of Newcastle’s away games also feature Under 2.5 goals, which ranks as the worst in the league.
My advice: Back Under 2.5 goals and make sure you never have to watch this game. Go for a walk, cut the lawn, paint the shed, do the groceries – anything to avoid this game.
West Ham vs. Leicester: Over 2.5 Goals (+100)
The final leg of this parlay is Leicester’s trip to West Ham as two sides chasing a top four spot go head-to-head in London.
It also features the odds that surprised me the most in this weekend’s slate of games, and I think Over 2.5 is an excellent bet.
In Leicester’s last seven league games, five of them have had Over 2.5 goals, and the other couple of games both had two goals and plenty more chances. They also beat Man United 3-0 in the FA Cup in that period, so finding the back of the net is not a problem. Striker Kelechi Iheanacho has nine goals in his last 10 games and is an unreal purple patch in front of goal.
West Ham aren’t goal-shy either, and their last two games have been a 3-2 win over Wolves and a 3-3 draw with Arsenal. Five of their last six home games in the league have featured Over 2.5 goals, with the other a 2-0 win against Leeds with the Hammers scoring twice before the half hour mark.
The stakes are high in this clash, but both these teams like to attack, and it could be an absolute banger.