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Premier League picks: Norwich vs. Burnley

Profile Picture: Cam Tucker

July 16th, 2020

There is only one Premier League fixture on Saturday, as Norwich faces Burnley

On the surface, it might not be the most appealing matchup. Burnley is middle of the Premier League table and has been grinding its way through one low-scoring result after another. Norwich, meanwhile, is dead last in the table, having lost seven consecutive league matches since the EPL re-started last month. 

But value can be found in just about any matchup, and there should be plenty here for bettors.

Sat, July 18 2020, 4:30 PM

Norwich

+230

Draw

+230

Burnley

+125

Right off the bat, we shouldn’t expect a high-scoring, back-and-forth thriller that brings the masses to the edge of their seats. Burnley, the road favorite, has scored only one goal in each of its last six matches, accumulating three 1-0 victories and three 1-1 draws. Couple that with Norwich’s continued struggles to find anything positive with its game, kept off the score sheet in four of their last five games, and the possibility of goals galore is highly unlikely. 

On its own, the Under 2.5 total goals has odds of -130, but bettors can tack onto that by going with the match winner & Over/Under 2.5 goals prop, which provides a nice boost in odds if bettors fancy Burnley to win and are expecting a low-scoring game. 

Burnley to win on its own has a decent price, considering a run of six straight contests in which they have collected a positive result, either a win or a draw. Facing a club such as Norwich make it that much more appealing on its own. 

Norwich lost a 1-0 decision to Chelsea earlier this week. That score flattered Norwich, which was under siege for the majority of the match. Chelsea had possession for more than 67% of the match and fired 22 shots, including six on target. Had it not been for the play of goalkeeper Tim Krul, Norwich could’ve lost this game by three or four goals.

It’s tempting to consider the Over 2.5 goals prop in Norwich vs. Burnley; it’s a total that has hit in five of the last eight games Norwich has played. But Burnley’s inability in recent weeks to score – not to mention their ability to keep opponents from putting up lofty goal totals – just screams low-scoring game. 

If you’re not comfortable with Burnley to win and Under 2.5 goals, taking Burnley to win straight up isn’t a bad move. On the other hand, if it hits, Burnley to win and Under 2.5 goals has the opportunity for a bigger payout. 

Pick One: Burnley to win (+125)

Pick Two: Burnley to win & Under 2.5 Goals (+370)


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