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Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Jason Ence

April 12th, 2021

Paris Saint-Germain will look to hold onto their advantage in their Champions League quarterfinal matchup when they take on Bayern Munich on Tuesday, April 13.

Tue, April 13 2021, 7:00 PM

Paris SG

+200

Draw

+310

Bayern Munich

+116

Bayern is favored to win the match, with lots of goals expected to be had.

PSG in position to pull the upset

Since 1970, less than 5% of teams that won an away first leg by a 3-2 score have failed to qualify for the next round. History is on PSG’s side as they host a Bayern Munich team that is struggling to score and feels like they gave away the previous match.

PSG set up perfectly in the first leg, allowing Bayern to lay siege to their box and then mercilessly hitting them on the counter-attack. Kylian Mbappe was ruthless, scoring a pair of goals to continue his stellar run of form. His second goal secured all three points for the visitors after they allowed Bayern back into the match. Keeper Keylor Navas was his typical Champions League hero self, standing on his head at times to hold onto the result.

Now they must at least secure a draw, or lose by just one in a low-scoring affair, to advance to the semifinals of the Champions League. They have won just once in their last five matches at home, losing three of those including their last. However, they have not lost two consecutive home matches in nearly twelve years. They should set up the same as last week, using their pace and creativity to take advantage of Bayern’s high line.

The biggest concern for PSG is the loss of Marquinhos, who came off injured in the match against Bayern and will miss Tuesday’s second leg. Their captain is the backbone of their defense, and was crucial in helping limit Bayern to just the two goals. Midfielder Marco Verratti is not expected to start, but will be available after being quarantined with COVID-19.

Bayern Munich reeling after Lewandowski injury

The injury to Robert Lewandowski on international break a couple of weeks ago has been a huge blow to Bayern, as they have been unable to turn chances into goals over the past three matches. They took 31 shots in the first leg match against PSG, created six big chances, and had an xG of nearly four, yet found the back of the net just twice. According to Opta, the match was the first time since they began recording Champions League statistics in 2010 that Bayern had created four or more big chances and not won a match.

After a 1-1 draw with Union Berlin this weekend, and a 1-0 win last weekend, the team has hit a bit of a skid in the scoring department. The loss of Serge Gnabry to COVID-19 is adding to the difficulties. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting is not a bad forward, but it’s difficult to replace one of the best forwards over the past five years.

Keeper Manuel Neuer said on Monday that Bayern can take advantage of the missing Marquinhos, and considering they must score at least twice, it should be expected that they will take it to PSG again. Alphonso Davies will likely start this time, as his pace will be needed tracking back in defense. Niklas Sule will miss the match after being subbed out in the first leg. The biggest concern is the status of Leon Goretzka, the heart of the midfield. Should he be unable to go, it could be a massive blow.

Trends and Betting Advice

Bayern Munich have scored two or more goals in all but two of their last 20 matches in Champions League. The match total has seen three or more goals in 13 of their last 16 in the competition.

Bayern have not lost a first leg in a Champions League knockout round and still advanced since 2014-15, suffering four straight eliminations. Bayern have failed to reach the semi-finals of the Champions League just one time in the past 10 years.

PSG have won five of their last six matches in the competition. However, they have won just two of their last five Champions League matches against Bayern. They also have recorded just one victory and one draw in their last five home matches, with the lone win coming in the domestic cup.

If PSG scores at all, then Bayern will need to get a third, so it may only take one goal to secure advancement. However, PSG are going to go all-out on the break again, with Neymar likely pulling the strings. PSG should stay nice and compact, forcing Bayern to take shots from the outside much like they did in the first leg, leading to a high shot total. Without Lewandowski’s aerial presence and intelligent runs, things may continue to be difficult in front of goal.

The longer the match goes without Bayern having what they need, the more chances they will take. If PSG can survive the first half, I like it to give them plenty of chances to hit on the break and for Mbappe to tie—and possibly break—the record for goals by a French player in the Champions League and score in the tournament for the fourth straight match. Look for PSG to do what they need to get the win and move one step closer to the final.

Free Picks: PSG moneyline (+200), Kylian Mbappe to score (+118), Over 28.5 shots (-134)

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