2019 Oscars Odds - Where "The Favourite" Is Not The Favorite

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Lindsay Van Gyn

February 22nd, 2019

The 2019 Oscars odds are up and running. Who takes it in the Kevin Hart-less show? This year's show begins at 8pm ET / 5pm PT on Sunday, February 24th from the Dolby Theater.

It’s that time of year again when we all eagerly anticipate being disappointed by the Oscars. This year will be no exception so you might as well make it interesting. Here are your free picks for the world’s 2nd biggest spectacle disappointment of 2019 (I’m looking at you Super Bowl LIII).

2019 Oscars Odds Best Supporting Actress - Regina (Will Be) King

2019 Oscars Odds – Best Supporting Actress
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) -335
Amy Adams (Vice) +400
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) +650
Emma Stone (The Favourite) +1800
Marina de Tavira (Roma) +2500
Every actress nominated in this category has something working against them.

Stone and Weisz, who play opposite each other in The Favorite don’t fair well statistically. Of all the double nominations in Oscar history only about 35% have netted a win for one of the two nominated. If one does win and actually becomes the favorite the irony will be beat to death in the media.

For Marina De Tavira, she was not nominated for any of the precursor award events, so the likelihood of her making the walk to the stage is nonexistent.

Amy Adams is now officially the the Leonardo DeCaprio of the Oscars after scoring 6 nominations but no win. While her performance is undeniably strong, it’s not strong enough in this field.

Regina King netted a trifecta of awards this season for her performance in If Beale Street Could Talk, minus one that really counts: The SAG. In the past 25 years only two actresses in this category have taken the win without winning the SAG.

Regina is the actress to make it three without a SAG. She is both the person who should win and person who will win.

2019 Oscars Odds Best Supporting Actor - Mahershala Ali -2500

2019 Oscars Odds – Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book) -2500
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) +800
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born) +1800
Adam Driver (BlacKKKlansman) +3300
Sam Rockwell (Vice) +6600
This category has everything: veterans, a comeback kid, the newbie, the ac-TOR, and a guy who’s-that-guy-who-was-in-that-thing

Sam Elliott, the veteran, is spectacular in A Star Is Born and makes us live for his facial expressions that carry any absent dialogue. However, if he didn’t win for his 1998 performance in Road House, he won’t win this. Truthfully, the movie hasn’t maintained its critical acclaim and that hurt his chances.

Sam Rockwell didn’t even have enough screen time to warrant this nomination, plus he’s already got one. He’s out, for sure. But congrats on his admirable comeback from near obscurity.

Richard E Grant is in a tough position because not only does he not have exceptional name recognition, but Can You Ever Forgive Me? wasn’t in the awards parcel. You can have one and not the other but you can’t have both. Sorry, Rick.

We’re down to the two that have chances: Mahershala Ali and Adam Driver. You’ve got the already-Oscar winner and awards season cleaner-upper, Ali, and the up-and-coming Driver.

Driver valiantly portrays an a Jewish cop who is the body double for a KKK infiltrator and is stunningly believable. Ali has the awards precursor working on his side having won the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice.

We can’t ignore history and while Driver deserves this just as much as Ali, Mahershala will be walking up to the podium once again.

2019 Oscars Odds Best Actress - Nobody Close To Glen

2019 Oscars Odds – Best Actress
Glen Close (The Wife) -910
Olivia Colman (The Favourite) +450
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born) +2200
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) +5000
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Forgive Me?) +6000
I’m going to keep this one simple: McCarthy, Gaga and Aparicio are all out.

The one that stings the most is Aparicio because this woman is not an actress and if she can deliver this performance on her first go, GIVE HER AN OSCAR! That’s not how the Academy works; there are cultural layers and history that she cannot overcome.

Gaga, I’m sorry but you’re not in the same orbit as Glenn Close and, as much as I love them, if either McCarthy or Gaga win over the interstellar talent of Close, I will personally lead the revolt against the Academy.

Someone who is in her orbit is Olivia Coleman. Coleman is a master at having you feel for her character, no matter how slovenly, needy or weak in the brains she comes across. Her portrayal as Queen Anne is as funny as it is sad and she is very deserving of this.

Glenn Close is the OG Leonardo DiCaprio with 6 Oscar noms. She is beyond overdue for this praise, leaning towards outright rude. As you can see from the 2019 Oscars Odds, she is also an overwhelming favorite. 

If Glenn Close doesn’t win we’ll see a collective pearl clutch from the media, but she will win so your pearls are safe as is this bet.

2019 Oscars Odds Best Actor - Rami Malek or Christian Bale?

2019 Oscars Odds – Best Actor
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) -700
Christian Bale (Vice) +450
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) +2200
Viggo Moretenson (Green Book) +4000
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) +10000
This one is going to be between Rami Malek and Christian Bale.

Viggo didn’t help his cause by deciding to put the N word into his mouth and vomiting it out to a reporter. On top of that, he, like Bradley Cooper, didn’t accumulate the awards and momentum that one needs to actually pick up the Oscar.

Dafoe, who portrays Vincent van Gogh is an out-of-the-blue nominee and a longshot in 2019 Oscars odds. Dafoe wasn’t even nominated for a precursor award besides the Golden Globes and a win would be a punch in the face of convention. Plus, the actual film he was in wasn’t nominated for much of anything. Only Denzel Washington (Training Day) and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Horse) have snagged the award sans a Best Picture nomination.

Christian Bale lives his characters to an obnoxious level. He gained weight and became Dick Cheney (what a dark and scary place that must have been). His performance is masterful and it’s hard not separate the actor from the former Vice President, which is what the Academy should and will be looking for.

Rami Malek had a similar engagement with his Freddie Mercury character and in my opinion, is the only reason this movie has survived awards season with it’s rather lukewarm reception. Not only does Malek achieve absolute parody with his performance, he does some incredible singing of his own

The double-threat and SAG award winner, Rami Malek will take Oscar home on Sunday night.

2019 Oscars Odds Best Picture - BlacKKKlansman

2019 Oscars Odds - Best Picture
Roma -305 Green Book +250
The Favourite +2000 Bohemian Rhapsody +2200
BlacKKKlansman +2500 Black Panther +2500
A Star is Born +5000 Vice +10000
What a crowd this is.

Right out of the gate we have two dark horses that should not be discounted: Roma, and Black Panther. Both could win for their lack of historical precedents in the Academy. The Academy is entering a post-modern era that could allow for a stunning first-time-in-history win for either of these films, which is why their 2019 Oscars odds are what they are.

Bohemian Rhapsody is ‘that’ film that collects all the awards but lacks true cultural enthusiasm. It’s rife with inaccuracies and glossed-over the history of the Queen frontman. It’s up there because it’s a legacy project that is supposed to mean something to the film canon. Excuse me for being all 'meh' about this.

Vice, The Favourite, and A Star Is Born are all strong contenders but they are not groundbreaking. The star-studded bio pic, the period piece and the remake of the remake (why does this story need to be told three times?). We’ve seen variations of all three and I think if the Academy is going to go conventional, it’ll go to Bohemian Rhapsody.

Green Book has suffered some fairly major controversy surrounding the accuracy of the film. The family of the film’s secondary character, Don Shirley, chastised the film for silencing the life of a man in the midst of intense racial oppression, over the redemption of a white man. The Academy would see this as a major setback in its progress and I can’t see how it will win.

BlackKlansman embodies the themes, gravitas and contribution to the film canon the Academy is looking for.  It’s timely and historic in the same breath. The acting is amazing (John David Washington should have been nominated for best actor). It combines comedy, drama and poignancy to create a perfect brew.

I want to see Black Panther or Roma win just to hear the collective gasp of the entire Dolby Theater. What we will see is Spike Lee’s film shake up the Oscars and we can all go home happy.

Lindsay Van Gyn has a masters degree in sports communications focusing on the NFL. She is a passionate writer who focuses on the cultural intersection of sports, statistics and fans.